Americas Steel USCanada Suspend Trade Discussions Over Weekend

Equity Research 24 August 2026 | 4:03PM EDT

Americas Steel: US/Canada Suspend Trade Discussions Over Weekend, Steel/Aluminum Tariffs Stay at 50%; Buy NUE, STLD

Over the weekend, the US and Canada suspended trade discussions after reaching Nick Cash | an impasse per Reuters. These talks had been previewed to include concessions on Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

steel tariffs (see prior note here). Following the conclusion of recent trade discussions, tariffs on imports of Canadian steel and aluminum remain at 50%. The breakdown in negotiations occurred two days after reported progress last week, during which the US had extended the discussion deadline from Wednesday to Friday. From a market perspective, we expect the continuation of these tariffs to support domestic steel pricing and shipment volumes for US steel mills. We highlight further takeaways within.

Trade discussions between US and Canada reach impasse. Over the weekend, trade discussions between the US and Canada paused without an agreement. Consequently, the US introduced a 50% tariff on specific Canadian goods on Saturday and maintained existing 50% duties on steel and aluminum imported from Canada. No additional talks are scheduled per Reuters.

Our thoughts. The unresolved trade discussions between the US and Canada mean the 50% tariff on steel imported from Canada remains in place. Because Canada is the largest steel trade partner to the US (per Census Bureau data), these ongoing duties continue to limit import volumes. To illustrate this impact, if we annualize current 2026 finished imports, they come to 2.75mn tons vs. pre-tariff levels of 6.12mn tons in 2024, representing an estimated decline of (~55%) or (3.37mn) tons. This reduction in 2026 annualized Canadian finished steel imports of (3.37mn) tons represents over half of the total reduction of imports of Canadian steel we have seen since 2024. We estimate this total reduction to be roughly (6.16mn) tons based on annualized 2026 numbers. We viewed USMCA negotiations and potential reductions in tariffs as the most significant risk to imports supply and domestic steel pricing.

Implications for our coverage. As a result, we expect the supply/demand landscape within the US to continue to slowly normalize with the (~6mn) tons of displaced volumes being made up partially by Asian imports and largely by domestic mills increasing capacity and utilization. We expect Canadian imports to remain muted as we estimate based on Canadian FOB prices as of June of $889/st + 50% tariffs and $40/st of freight and insurance costs, we arrive at a landed cost of Canadian HRC of $1,374/st vs. US HRC prices of $1,205/st. As for price, the front end of the domestic HRC futures curve was only up marginally (Exhibit 2) vs. Friday’s close, yet still below last Tuesday’s levels, despite more certainty around the US/Canada steel tariff situation. We continue to view mid-cycle prices for US HRC will settle around

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~$1,000/st vs. consensus of $950/st. As a result, we expect NUE (Buy), STLD (Buy) and CLF (Neutral) to capture incremental market share amid lower import availability and prevailing price levels.

Exhibit 1: Canadian finished steel imports are down Exhibit 2: Following suspension of trade discussions over sharply from pre-tariff levels the weekend, the front end of the forward curve has Finished Canadian steel imports (st) moved up vs. Friday 8/21 while the back end remains unchanged HRC forward curve $/st

2024 Actual 2026 (annualized) Tuesday 8/18 Friday 8/21 Monday 8/24

4.50 1,250 3.95 1,230 4.00 1,210 3.50 1,190 3.00 1,170 2.50 1,150 mn st 2.00 -63% 1,130 1.45 1, % -25% 1, ,070 0.50 1,050 0.00 Flat Long Other

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