Campbells Aug 18

Rating Company Date 18 August 2026 Hold Campbell's North America Reuters Bloomberg Rating Hold CPB.OQ CPB US Price target (USD) 19.00 United States Price at 17 Aug 26 22.68 52-week range 33.61 – 20.00 Consumer Consumer Staples Valuation & Risks

What we're watching for in FY4Q26 results Steve Powers CPB reports FY4Q26 earnings Thursday, September 3rd pre-market Research Analyst In our view, the primary focus of CPB's FY4Q26 earnings release will likely be FY27 guidance. Ultimately, we expect FY4Q results to come in near expectations, Christopher Barnes, CFA and we further believe CPB will likely position FY27 as a transition year that lays Research Analyst the groundwork for future recovery. However, we are cautious that the implied FY27 earnings trough may end up deeper than currently anticipated given a Angeline Goh combination of inflation, ongoing reinvestment needs, incentive compensation Research Associate normalization, higher interest expense, and dilution from a higher share count following the La Regina transaction. Nikhil Jain, CFA Recent tracked channel data suggest relatively stable trends within Meals & Research Associate Beverages, though Snacks remains challenged. Specifically, tracked channel consumption declined -2.3% during FY4Q26 (vs. -1.9% in FY3Q26), reflecting growth of +0.6% in Meals & Beverages offset by a decline of -4.9% in Snacks. As a result, we are positioned slightly below consensus for FY4Q26 (organic sales growth of -0.7% vs. Street ~flat; EPS of $0.38 vs. Street $0.39) and remain cautious into FY27, where we expect recent top-line trends to broadly persist (i.e., Meals & Beverages ~flat, Snacks down -MSD, and total company sales down - LSD). Combined with a challenging cost and investment backdrop that we expect will pressure margins despite ongoing productivity initiatives, this leads us to a FY27 EPS forecast roughly -3.5% below consensus ($1.83 vs. Street at $1.89).

While we therefore remain cautious on the fundamental outlook and continue to see risk to consensus expectations, we also maintain our Hold rating and $19 target, noting that management's seeming commitment to maintaining the dividend (currently yielding ~7%) provides some support to the total return profile. From here, we expect investor focus to center on (i) whether Meals & Beverages can sustain or improve recent modest growth, (ii) whether Snacks stabilization efforts can gain quicker traction, (iii) to what degree raw material and logistics inflation impact FY27 (net of productivity), and (iv) management's priorities in balancing reinvestment, deleveraging, and shareholder returns.

Please see Figure 1 for a comparison of our estimates vs. Street estimates for FY4Q26 and FY27, which embed the following:

• Top-line: We model FY4Q26 sales declining -7.8% (-7.0% prior; Street: - 7.3%), driven by an organic decline of -0.7% (reduced from flat previously; Street: -0.2%), a +0.1% contribution from La Regina, and a -7.2% headwind from lapping the 53rd week. By segment, we model Meals & Beverages organic growth of +3.5% (vs. +4.0% previously) and Snacks

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

organic growth of -5.5% (vs. -4.5% previously). Tracked channel consumption declined -2.3% during the quarter, reflecting +0.6% growth in Meals & Beverages and a -4.9% decline in Snacks.

• Margins/EPS: Given ongoing cost pressures from oil and logistics, as well as the reductions in net sales above, we have reduced our gross margin estimate to 28.2% (28.5% prior; Street: 28.6%). Our EBIT margin estimate of 11.1% is approximately -25bps below consensus, resulting in FY4Q26 EPS of $0.38 ($0.39 previously), modestly below the Street at $0.39.

• FY27 Guidance: As discussed above, we expect management to guide FY27 below current consensus expectations, reflecting…