Canada Economics Comment July CPI Preview

Economics Research 14 August 2026 | 10:32PM BST

Canada Economics Comment: July CPI Preview

n In July, we expect month-over-month headline inflation of +0.15% (top-down sa, Megan Peters | vs. -0.12% in June), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.84% (vs. Goldman Sachs International +2.80% in June and +2.9% consensus for July). We expect month-over-month CPI ex. food and energy inflation to slow to +0.10% (top-down sa, vs. +0.32% in June), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +1.52% (vs. +1.61% in June). n We highlight three key elements that we will be watching in the July report. First, we expect a higher energy prices but soft food inflation. Second, we expect shelter inflation will remain subdued. Lastly, we expect softer inflation in categories that were boosted by the World Cup in June.

In July, we expect month-over-month headline inflation of +0.15% (top-down sa, vs. -0.12% in June), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.84% (vs. +2.80% in June and +2.9% consensus for July). We expect month-over-month CPI ex. food and energy inflation to slow to +0.10% (top-down sa, vs. +0.32% in June), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +1.52% (vs. +1.61% in June).

Adopting a bottom-up seasonal adjustment, we forecast month-over-month headline and ex. food and energy inflation at +0.22% and +0.08%, respectively.

Our category-level bottom-up forecast is outlined in Exhibit 4. We highlight three elements that we will be watching in the July report.

First, we expect an increase in energy prices in July, largely reflecting higher gasoline prices in July. We expect food inflation to edge up to +0.1% based on the July signal from the US.

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to

Goldman Sachs Canada Economics Comment

Exhibit 1: We Expect Higher Energy Prices but Soft Food Inflation in July

Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Second we expect shelter will remain soft. We expect homeowners’ replacement costs inflation to tick up to +0.1% (vs. -0.3% in June) reflecting stabilizing house prices. We expect rental inflation to tick down to +0.0% (vs. +0.3%) following a firmer print last month. Lastly, we expect mortgage interest cost inflation to move sideways at +0.1% as mortgage renewals onto higher rates and a shift from variable to fixed-rate mortgages offset continued house price deflation.

Exhibit 2: Stabilizing House Prices Imply Firmer Homeowners’ Replacement Cost Inflation

Source: Haver Analytics, Statistics Canada, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Lastly, we expect softer inflation in categories that were boosted by the World Cup in June, particularly car rental, travel services (including traveler accommodation and travel tours) and intercity transport (which has also been boosted by higher jet fuel prices).