CEEMEA Week Ahead SARB to Hike by 25bp

Economics Research 18 September 2026 | 4:27PM BST

CEEMEA Week Ahead: SARB to Hike by 25bp; MNB, CBE and BoG on Hold; CPI in ZA

In the coming week, there will be MPC meetings in Hungary (Tuesday), South Africa Kevin Daly | (Wednesday), Egypt (Thursday) and Ghana (Thursday), and August CPI data will be Goldman Sachs International

released in South Africa (Wednesday). Clemens Grafe | In Hungary, we and consensus expect the MNB to remain on hold at +5.50%, as the Bank’s Goldman Sachs International

recent guidance suggests that it is set to lower the inflation target from 3.0% to 2.5% at the Andrew Matheny | September meeting, while temporarily pausing policy easing at this meeting to assess the Goldman Sachs International market reaction to the change in target. In South Africa, we expect the SARB to hike its policy rate by 25bp to +7.25% (consensus: +7.25%), reflecting hawkish external factors Farouk Soussa | including the Fed and oil prices. However, we expect the decision to result from a split vote Goldman Sachs International within the MPC (with dovish dissents likely) and see it as less clear-cut than implied by Ludovica Ambrosino market pricing (which has largely priced in a 25bp rate hike). In Egypt, we expect the CBE to | remain on hold at +19.00% (consensus: +19.00%), as inflation remains sticky and risks to Goldman Sachs International

the inflation outlook are skewed to the upside given the re-escalation in the Iran war and Basak Edizgil | related impact on global energy markets. In Ghana, we expect the BoG to keep its policy Goldman Sachs International rate on hold at +14.00%, following the hold in July and May, as it assesses the impact of the Johan Allen Iran war on the domestic inflation outlook. In South Africa, we expect headline inflation to | rise from +4.3%yoy to +4.5%yoy in August (consensus: +4.5%yoy), driven by higher fuel Goldman Sachs International

and electricity prices, while core inflation is likely to remain unchanged at +4.2%yoy Alessa Abraham | (consensus: +4.2%yoy). Goldman Sachs International Hungary: MNB to Announce Lower Inflation Target and Leave Rates Unchanged

The Monetary Council of the MNB will meet on Tuesday, September 22, and we and consensus expect it to hold its base rate at +5.50%. Following August’s meeting, Governor Varga stated that the Bank will conduct a “multi-step review” of its inflation target and will publish the results in autumn. More recently, media reports citing an MNB official suggested the Bank is set to lower the target from 3.0% to 2.5% at the September meeting, while pausing policy easing at this meeting to assess the market reaction to the change in target. Reflecting this guidance, we expect the Bank to temporarily pause its cutting cycle at the upcoming meeting.

Looking beyond the short term, we maintain our view that the outlook for Hungarian rates is more dovish than market pricing implies, and that the market has overreacted to potential inflation risks. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East and associated increases in oil and refined product prices clearly pose upside risks to inflation. Even so, recent inflation readings in Hungary have been extraordinarily weak (headline inflation in August surprised consensus to the downside for the eighth consecutive month) and, reflecting the lagged effects of HUF strength, we believe inflation is likely to remain below the prospective new target. We expect this to leave room for the MNB to resume easing in the coming months and continue

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Goldman Sachs CEEMEA Week Ahead

cutting through next year, until it reaches our estimate of the nominal neutral rate of +3.00%.

South Africa: SARB to Hike Policy Rate by 25bp, Albeit With Likely Dovish Dissents

We recently shifted our forecast for the September MPC meeting from a hold to a hike, on account of hawkish external factors, including the Fed and oil prices (consensus: +7.25%). We expect an upward revision to the SARB’s inflation forecasts and we think that MPC members will likely be…