China Resources Beer (0291.HK) 1H26 Review Premiumization, Op resilience and outperformance vs industry under appreciated, ...

Equity Research 20 August 2026 | 12:34AM HKT

China Resources Beer (0291.HK): 1H26 Review: Premiumization, Op-resilience and outperformance vs industry under-appreciated, L-T

CR Beer reported in-line 1H26 results on Aug 19. We see the 5% share price Leaf Liu | correction post result as overdone, and highlight that the company outperformed Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

the industry with positive volume/ASP growth in 1H26 against a challenging Christina Liu | backdrop and largely steady core OP in 1H26 despite its larger exposure to Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

mid-to-low-end segment (more industry headwinds) and higher packaging cost Valerie Zhou | pressure from Aluminum (highest canned beer ratio at 44-45%, among industry Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. peers). With weather swing/industry softness into July, we expect CR Beer to sustain its topline outperformance among industry peers into 2H26 backed by healthy momentum across its strong product portfolio (Heineken/Amstel/Laoxue/New products), and remain confident in management’s strategy and execution of a high-quality growth strategy with steady scaling to support mix upgrade/UTR/efficiency. Our key takeaways from the analyst briefing are: 1) 1H Review/2H outlook: Company remains positive on the resilience of its beer volume/ASP growth and premiumization progress achieved in 1H26 though profitability was dragged by rising packaging cost in 1H26 (esp. aluminum in recent months, as c. 25% of total COGS in 1H26, but partially offset by efficiency gain in overhead costs). Into 2H, mgmt showed continued confidence in product mix-upgrade/operating resilience into 2H26 with ASP lapping an easier base while maintaining healthy channel inventory; they plan to rely on self-efficiency improvement to partially offset packaging cost pressure (expect Aluminum cost pressure easing in 4Q) ; 2) Premiumization strategy: Mgmt believes long-term ASP and margin improvement should be supported by the continued scaling of sub-premium-and-above segments (long-term target to contribute 30-35% of total beer volume vs. 26%/25% in 1H26/2025), underpinned by a tiered portfolio of international and domestic brands with clearly differentiated positioning, ongoing enrichment through successful new launches, and high-potential OEM partnerships that can further support consumer insights/product innovation; 3) Spirits business: Mgmt expects 2H26 performance to still see some pressure amid the broader industry softness while the company will focus on disciplined investment and a few key core markets only. On the channel front, mgmt plans to diversify channels while reducing stocking pressure on wholesale distributors. 4) Shareholder Returns: Mgmt expects the full-year dividend payout ratio to exceed 55% for 2026, with the goal of reaching 60%~70% in the future remaining unchanged.

Key product/channel strategy in details: 1) Premiumization Strategy: Mgmt expressed confidence in continued share gains in the sub-premium and above segments, backed by occasion-driven innovation (e.g., Super Dry for

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Goldman Sachs China Resources Beer (0291.HK)

health-conscious consumers) to differentiate from key competitors across pricing tiers. Mgmt noted the ASP uplift from premiumization will be progressive as the company also aims to stabilize and grow mid-end/mass-market products to maintain a balanced portfolio. By brand, mgmt emphasized that international brands demonstrated healthy tiered premiumization led by Heineken, alongside Amstel which sustained fast scaling (80% YoY growth in 1H26) despite a growing base, and Edelweiss that continues to be cultivated with a focus on ski resort occasions. Conversely…