Japan July Trade Crude Oil Import Volume Swings Back to Positive YoY, but Crude Oil Import Prices Remain High

Economics Research 20 August 2026 | 10:16AM JST

Japan: July Trade: Crude Oil Import Volume Swings Back to Positive YoY, but Crude Oil Import Prices Remain High

BOTTOM LINE: July export volume maintained positive growth for the fifth Yuriko Tanaka | consecutive month at +5.2% yoy, and the growth rate accelerated. On a seasonally Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. adjusted mom basis (our calculation), export volume also increased by +2.3%. Regarding crude oil imports, while the import unit price in yen terms remained high at +81% compared to February, crude oil import volume turned to an increase for the first time since March at +5.5% yoy. On the other hand, the import unit price for natural gas, which had been limited to a modest increase even since the Middle East disruption, surged in July.

Export value growth: +8 (relevance: 4; surprise: +2)

n Trade Balance: July: -¥634.5 bn vs. GS forecast: -¥282.5 bn, BBG consensus: -¥669.0 bn, July 2025: +¥156.3 bn n Export Value (yoy): July: +23.2% vs. GS forecast: +20.0%, BBG consensus: +20.1%, June: +19.3%

n Import Value (yoy): July: +27.8% vs. GS forecast: +21.0%, BBG consensus: +26.1%, June: +25.4% n Export Volume (yoy): July: +5.2%, June: +0.2%, n Import Volume (yoy): July: +1.2%, June: +1.1%

Trade data for July show that export value accelerated to +23.2% yoy (June: +19.3%). Import value also accelerated further to +27.8% yoy (June: +25.4%). As a result, the trade deficit widened to -¥634.5 bn, from a deficit of -¥156.3 bn in July of last year.

Export volume maintained a yoy increase for the fifth consecutive month, and the growth rate accelerated to +5.2% (June: +0.2%). On a seasonally adjusted mom basis (our calculation), volume also swung to an increase of +2.3% mom in July (June: -1.3% mom). While export volume to the US increased sharply yoy, export volume to China also turned to a yoy increase for the first time in four months.

By export item (value basis; yoy), semiconductors and electronic components increased by +49.1% yoy, contributing +3.0 pp to export value growth, and transport equipment increased by +20.7%, boosting the overall total by +4.6 pp. Note that the

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import value of semiconductors and electronic components also increased by +79.7% yoy.

Regarding crude oil imports, a point of concern since the Middle East disruptions, the import unit price calculated from import value and volume remained high in July at ¥18,503/bbl (June: ¥18,710/bbl), or US$114.33/bbl (June: US$116.9/bbl) in US dollar terms. These levels represent increases of +80.7% and +73.9%, respectively, compared to the pre-conflict level in February. On the other hand, crude oil import volume turned positive for the first time since March at +5.5% yoy. The volume is also recovering to a level exceeding the monthly average of 2025. While crude oil import volume from the Middle East decreased by 32.8% yoy, crude oil imports from the US increased further by +814.5% (June: +459.5%).

The import unit price for natural gas, which had remained at a modest single-digit increase even after the worsening of the situation in the Middle East, surged in July to ¥2,249/mmbtu (June: ¥1,895/mmbtu), and in dollar terms to US$13.9/mmbtu (June: US$11.8/mmbtu). Compared to February, this represents a rise of +28.0% (June: +7.9%) in yen terms. Import volume was 5,014,000 tons, decreasing by -4.8% yoy (June: +6.2%). While natural gas imports from the Middle East decreased by 50.8% yoy to 276,000 tons, imports from the US increased by +59.0% yoy to 844,000 tons.

Exhibit 1: Exports, Imports and Trade Balance Exhibit 2: Export Volume by Region (Seasonally Adjusted Level) Percent change, Trillions of yen 2020=100 2020=

-40 -2 80 80 Trade Balance (RHS) Export volume overall Export Value (LHS) 70 US 70 -60 -3 Imports Value (LHS) EU 60 60 -80 -4 China Jul-

Source: Ministry of Finance Source: MOF