Citi The Point for Europe Thursday,

The Point for Europe Thursday, 13 August 2026

Top Call | Company | Industry | Strategy & Economics | Key Rating and Target Price Changes

Top Call Must Read Vestas (VWS.CO) - Raising forecasts on margin beat; Retain Buy with increased Global Economic Outlook & Strategy - DKK260 TP Renewed Uncertainties—But Following the significant beat in Q2’26 earnings we think the key debate will be on Continued Resilience how much margins can further progress in 2027, when Offshore is guided to turn profitable. We estimate that Onshore margins in Q2’26 are at least in a low-mid teens % range, levels not seen since 2016/17. While the mix of projects completing this quarter seems to have been favourable, there has been a marked improvement in price/cost management and in execution. A 10% group margin – doubted by many investors – now looks possible in 2028. We think the remaining bear-case on Service remains a sentiment drag, but the planned completion of the turnaround by Q4’26 could yet act as the next positive catalyst, with company commentary on continued progress encouraging. We still see 2028 revenue consensus revenue forecasts as too low, given end market strength. We retain our Buy rating with increased DKK260 target price. Martin Wilkie

thyssenkrupp nucera (NCH2.DE) - Updating forecasts Despite the lowering of 2026 forecasts – mainly on SOEC exit costs – our 2027 forecasts increase due to the related reduction in future development costs. While our 2027 EBIT forecast increases by around €10m, we think a sustained pick up in AWE electrolysis order intake will be needed to drive the shares. Nonetheless, we continue to see the shares pricing Chlor-Alkali at ~7x EBITA and AWE at zero, pointing to option value as and when the AWE order cycle inflects; we retain our Buy/High Risk rating. Martin Wilkie | Avinash Mundhra

ABN AMRO (ABNd.AS) - A 15% Return On Equity Is Clearly Feasible We update our model post-2Q26 results. Our 2026 EPS estimates rise high- single-digits on better clearing NII and cost guidance, which reduces to mid- single-digits in 2028. We also rebase our valuation off 2029 numbers, which prompts our Target Price to rise from €41 to €50. We believe (and have done for some time) that a) at the current level of rates a long-term mid-teens RoE is eminently feasible (we model ~15% in 2029), and b) ABN is one of the best ways to play higher short-term rates in Europe, with even the upped €6.8bn commercial net interest income guidance for 2026 being conservative (our estimate is ~1-2% _ above). For more details see Story Harder And Harder To Ignore With 2Q26 Beat- _

See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations.

And-Raise, and Thoughts Post Conference Call - 2026 NII Guide Is Still Conservative. ABN is our Top Pick of the Benelux banks, and one of our three Top Picks within European banks. Shrey Srivastava | Anand Demble | Andre Nemec

Company DHL Group (DHLn.DE) - Downgrade to Neutral We downgrade DHL to Neutral. We remain constructive on the investment case, supported by recovery potential in Express volumes and associated operational leverage, improvement in Freight Forwarding under new management, and the long-term growth prospects of the Supply Chain business. Our EBIT forecasts remain c.4% above company-compiled consensus for 2026 and 2027, respectively. However, after a share price rally over the past year, and with the shares now trading close to our revised €59 target price, we see a more balanced risk-reward profile. We believe the strong Q2 performance, partly supported by temporary Middle East capacity tightness, has improved both earnings expectations and investor confidence, contributing to a meaningful re-rating in the shares. While the underlying recovery remains broad-based across the business, DHL now appears fairly valued, with future upside increasingly reliant on the delivery of earnings growth. Chloe Fu | Arthur Truslove

ArcelorMittal (MT.AS) - Perspectives on why valuation is not a bear case for the stock Since at least 2012, valuation was never a quibble on investing in MT. However with the stock up nearly 200% over 18 months, and at 1x P/B questions around…