Citi The Point for Europe Wednesday, 05 August 2026

The Point for Europe Wednesday, 05 August 2026

Top Call | Company | Industry | Strategy & Economics | Fixed Income & FX | Key Rating and Target Price Changes

Top Call Must Read Lufthansa (LHAG.DE) - New Numbers, Remaining Sell On Rising Competition Global Economic Outlook & Strategy - Into H2 Renewed Uncertainties—But We update numbers post Lufthansa's 1H26 results, cutting EBIT -17% for FY26 to Continued Resilience EUR1.4bn versus a EUR1.7-2.2bn guide. As explained overleaf we continue to see guidance as difficult to meet, with unit revenue growth more likely to decelerate than accelerate as its own and competitive capacity accelerates into 2H26. The stock remains expensive relative to peer IAG, where numbers are less reliant on strong post-conflict bookings sustaining, and the stock supported by more substantial shareholder returns. We cut our price target to EUR7.80 on the estimate change, remaining Sell rated. Conor Dwyer

HSBC Holdings PLc (HSBA.L) - Time To Take A Pause HSBC shares are +40% YTD, one of the best performing stocks in the sector, and now trade on ~11x fwd P/E and 2.2x P/TB for a ~18-19% RoTE. For a further re- rating from here we believe one needs to believe in a period of more rapid top-line growth and while there are some encouraging signs, we believe this will take time to materialise. Meanwhile HSBC has guided to incremental cost spend near-term, which may limit the magnitude of positive jaws in 2027, and the renewed focus on volume growth may cap near-term buybacks. We therefore expect the shares to now pause for breath and so downgrade from Buy to Neutral, with new target price 1570p (from 1640p) after trimming EPS forecasts by ~0-3%. Andrew Coombs, CFA | Michael Zhang | Rajkumar Choudhary

CVC Capital Partners Group (CVC.AS) - The Upside Story Is Increasingly About FRE; Reiterate Buy We came away from CVC’s 1H26 results incrementally more constructive, particularly given recent strategic developments in credit and insurance, continued momentum in private wealth, and improving fund performance, which gives greater confidence in both Fund VIII carry recognition and Fund X fundraising. Following 1H26, we increase estimates by 2-4% and are now c20% ahead of Visible Alpha FY28E adjusted EBITDA, across both fee-related and performance-related earnings (Figure 3), with a broader source of upside for fee- related earnings than previously envisaged. CVC is one of top picks among European asset managers. We see significant value, as despite recent re-rating _ valuation remains undemanding at 'only' 14x comparable FY28 FRE (Figure 1), at a _

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heavy discount to global alts, including closest European peer EQT, strong fundamentals, double-digit FPAUM growth (that we believe investors can have high conviction on), and significant upside to consensus earnings. Nicholas Herman

Company VINCI SA (SGEF.PA) - Court ruling further de-risks Gatwick expansion Vinci looks set to push ahead with the expansion of Gatwick Airport after the Court of Appeal dismissed the latest legal challenge against the Northern Runway Project. We view the ruling as more of a de-risking event than a material surprise, given the project had already received DCO approval last year and survived a related High Court challenge in June. As such, today's decision should not materially alter investor expectations or our estimates in our view, particularly as the project is already incorporated within our longer-term assumptions. Nonetheless, we think the outcome provides greater visibility over one of Vinci Airports' most important long-term growth projects, with investor focus now likely to shift towards execution, capex phasing, financing, and eventual returns. Marc Ip Tat Kuen

Siemens Healthineers (SHLG.DE) - Management meetings point to supportive capex environment; confident in inflation/tariff mitigation; Buy We hosted Dr. Bernd Montag, CEO, for investor meetings post-3QFY26 on Jul-31 (our take). Key takeaways: 1) management sees the global hospital capex environment as healthy, with strong US, improving Europe, while centralized procurement in China…