The Point for Europe Friday,

The Point for Europe Friday, 18 September 2026

Top Call | Company | Industry | Strategy & Economics | Fixed Income & FX | Key Rating and Target Price Changes

Top Call Must Read KPN NV (KPN.AS) - Greater optimism is likely to arrive after Q3 Global Economic Outlook & Strategy - We view KPN’s Q3 results on 28 October as somewhat of a clearing event. Due to Global Resilience—Many Storm the prior Q3 including €17m of IP rights settlement and this Q3 including €4m-5m Clouds, but Still Little Rain of one-off costs relating to the collective labour agreement, we forecast EBITDAaL decline and are c1% below Visible Alpha consensus. However, after this, investors are likely to become more optimistic as they look ahead to much-improved Q4 trends, before 2027 sees FCF step up as the fibre build matures, supporting the dividend growing 25%. We modestly reduce our TP to €4.9 (from €5.0) on <1% reductions to our estimates but reiterate our Buy rating. Carl Murdock-Smith, CFA

Netherlands Diversified Banks - Dutch Banks (Still) Best-Placed for Higher Rates; Top Pick ABN We put through yet more upgrades to our ABN/ING numbers, now updating for a terminal ECB rate of 3% (from 2.5% previously). This leads to ~2-6% and ~2-5% EPS upgrades, respectively, to our 2026-29 forecasts, with our TP rising from €50 (already the highest on the Street) to €54 at ABN, and from €33 to €36 at ING. We are now ~4-14% above 2026-28 consensus EPS at ABN (almost entirely on ~2-6% higher NII) and ~0-3% above at ING (~1% higher NII and ~2-4% higher fees offset by heavier costs/taxes). In our view, the Dutch banking market screens as one of the most attractive in Europe—supported by digitalization, volumes, and resilience to deposit competition from e.g. Chase/Revolut (more details here)—and is still (following our early April note) one of the best ways to play higher short-term rates in Europe (specifically ABN, one of our top European bank picks). Shrey Srivastava | Anand Demble | Andre Nemec

Company VINCI SA (SGEF.PA) - August traffic: Airport traffic slips, whilst Autoroutes weakness continues Vinci Airports reported passenger traffic down 0.8% YoY in August, leaving YTD traffic broadly flat at -0.1%. Performance remained mixed across the portfolio, with continued geopolitically-driven weakness in Japan (-6.6% YTD) and UK (-1.1% YTD), but offset by growth in Portugal (+2.5% YTD), Serbia (+7.0% YTD), Hungary (+8.0% YTD), and Mexico (+3.0% YTD). Meanwhile, Vinci Autoroutes traffic _ declined 5.6% YoY in August (-3.2% YTD), reflecting adverse calendar effects for _

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LV, while HV traffic remained resilient (+2.4% in August; +1.3% YTD). Overall, Airports traffic remains broadly consistent with our FY26 assumption of -0.4%, while Autoroutes traffic is tracking below our FY26 forecast of -1.9%. We rate Vinci Neutral. Marc Ip Tat Kuen

Publicis Groupe SA (PUBP.PA) - Opening up the web; an incremental positive The opinion of Judge Brinkema in United States v. Google LLC was unsealed this week, which outlined a number of remedies designed to increase competition across the open-web advertising ecosystem. The remedies are aimed at increasing interoperability, transparency, and competition across the open web. While not the most immediate beneficiary, the ruling is an incremental positive for LiveRamp because it should support a more open advertising ecosystem in which independent identity, connectivity, and measurement providers play a more important role. Publicis' acquisition of LiveRamp is yet to close, but we understand it remains on track to close by the end of 2026, consistent with the initial timeline outlined by management. Ciaran Donnelly

Helvetia Baloise Holding AG (HBANC.S) - 1H26 After the Call: Solid Underlying Metrics; Integration Progressing Ahead of Time The earnings call did not offer much beyond today’s earnings pack—Helvetia Baloise’s management delivered what we viewed as a compelling message that was not particularly challenging to achieve as its inaugural reporting revealed solid underlying operating metrics during a post-merger integration phase. They are…