Commodity Monthly Review July 2026

Commodity Monthly Review Monthly Review – July 2026 Head of FIC & Commodity Research Performance overview Dr Mike Haigh The BCOM rose by 7.2% in July, bringing the year-to-date advance to 20.4%. The index finished the month at 132.1. Performance was broadly positive across sectors, with precious metals and Cross Commodity Strategist livestock posting a negative performance. Precious fell 0.5%, driven by silver falling 3.6%, while Jeremy Sellem gold rose 0.2%. Live cattle fell 4.6%. Energy advanced by 15.2%, drive by both crude (Brent and WTI up 17.6% and 22.2%, respectively, and products (gasoil up 39.4%), but natural gas was the worst-performing commodity (down 14%) across all sectors. Grains rose 6.6% and softs posted a 5.4% gain. Base metals rose 3.3%, driven by nickel (up 5.6%), and copper and aluminium posting 3.4% and 3.3% gains, respectively. Zinc also gained, and lead was the only metal to drop (-0.4%).

Analysis period: 1 July 2026 to 31 July 2026. Unless otherwise stated, all price returns are calculated based on BCOM Indices.

July sector performance July individual market performance

50% Livestock 40% 30% Precious 20% 10% Industrial 0% Softs -10% -20%

Sugar Copper Wheat Gasoil Soybean Gasoline Natural gas Live Cattle Lean Hogs Aluminium Heating Oil WTI

Soybean Meal Silver Gold Zinc Brent Nickel Cocoa Cotton Coffee Lead Grains

YTD sector performance YTD individual market performance

160% Precious 140% 120% 100% Livestock 80% 60% Softs 40% 20% 0% Grains -20% -40%

Sugar Copper Wheat Gasoil Live Cattle Soybean Gasoline Natural gas Lean Hogs Aluminium Soybean Oil Heating Oil Soybean Meal WTI

Kansas Wheat Corn Zinc Silver Cocoa Lead Gold Coffee Nickel Cotton Brent Industrial

Source: Bloomberg, SG Cross Asset Research/Commodities

This document contains important disclaimer and disclosure information. Please refer to the back inside cover of this research report.

Energy The energy complex increased by 15.2% in July, making it the best-performing sector in the month. The increase was driven entirely by crude, the complex with products that enjoyed the best month. Gasoil rose 39.4% and heating oil up 29.6%. WTI rose 22.2% and Brent was up 17.6%. Natural gas was down 14%, making it the worst-performing commodity among all commodity sectors. Year-to-date, natural gas is down 23%.

Bloomberg WTI Crude Oil Subindex Brent and WTI (+17.6% and +22.2%). Brent prices remained under pressure in early July as 150 physical markets weakened significantly. Forties differentials sank to a six-year low, with the Aug 140 130 26 Brent contango tracking towards a weak expiry around $0.90/bbl contango. This weakness 120 reflected counter-seasonal stockbuilds in Europe, with July balances pointing to 5mb builds 110 100 versus a seasonal 2mb draw, centred in Northwest Europe. 90 30-Jun 14-Jul 28-Jul Source: SG Cross Asset Research/Commodities, The supply overhang stemmed from increased Middle Eastern availability following the Bloomberg resumption of some Hormuz flows. Previously stranded volumes began hitting Dubai markets, Bloomberg Brent Crude Subindex weighing on Atlantic basin arbitrages to Asia and redirecting barrels to Europe. The EIA’s July 780 Short-Term Energy Outlook softened 2026 liquids by 3mb/d, leaving the full-year draws at just 730 0.9mb/d, with most revisions in H226 (+5.1mb/d month-on-month driven by large OPEC 680 630 production increases following the US-Iran MOU). 580 30-Jun 14-Jul 28-Jul Brent continued to bear the brunt of the prompt physical overhang in the second week of July, Source: SG Cross Asset Research/Commodities, Bloomberg driven by increased Middle East availability. However, market participants began anticipating a shift in the WTI-Brent differential, expecting it to widen once prompt volumes were absorbed, with seasonally soft Q326 US Gulf Coast balances eventually forcing US barrels to price more competitively. Geopolitically, optimism over the US-Iran MoU proved premature as the Strait of Hormuz remained severely disrupted. The Houthis, alongside other Iranian allies, stepped up attacks on Saudi facilities and shipping. Recent damage to the North Pier berths at Mina Al Ahmadi in Kuwait and storage tanks at Jazan in…