Crude oil

18 August 2026, 13:21 UTC Chief Investment Office GWM Investment Research

Stronger oil demand growth in recent years CIO View: Crude oil Giovanni Staunovo, Strategist, UBS Switzerland AG

Brent crude oil (USD/bbl) • In recent years, we have regularly encountered claims that oil demand Forecasts Spot is close to peaking and that demand growth is slowing rapidly. 18 Aug 26 91.1 • Over the past few years, oil demand forecasts from the International Dec 26 85.0 Energy Agency—widely used by market participants as a baseline for Mar 27 80.0 analysis—have repeatedly been revised significantly higher. Jun 27 80.0 • We believe oil demand will continue to grow over the coming years, Sep 27 80.0 supported by emerging markets. Note: Forecasts refer to end of period. Source: Bloomberg, UBS

At the end of 2025, we wrote about the unusual discrepancy between Oil demand estimates revised upward the supply and demand estimates of the three main energy agencies —the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the International Energy over time Values are in million barrels per day Agency (IEA), and OPEC—which led to different assessments of market fundamentals. In that report, we noted that, in theory, the demand and supply numbers of the energy agencies should align by the end of each year, but that this was not yet the case in December.

Eight months later, some of the discrepancy on the demand side has started to disappear. OPEC’s demand numbers for 2024 and 2025 are almost identical to the estimates it issued in December 2025. Meanwhile, the IEA has revised both demand numbers substantially higher: 2024 demand was raised by 0.94mbpd versus December 2025, while 2025 demand was lifted by 0.92mbpd. The IEA’s 2024 demand estimate is now even above OPEC’s estimate, while its 2025 estimate is slightly lower. New incoming demand Source: IEA, UBS data from emerging markets has led to several upward demand revisions by the IEA this year. In contrast, the EIA’s demand forecasts are almost unchanged from December and remain considerably lower than those of the other two energy agencies. We expect the EIA to revise its demand Oil demand driven by emerging estimates for both 2024 and 2025 higher over the coming months. We markets would also not be surprised to see further demand revisions by the IEA Values are in millon barrels per day for 2025. Given the easier task of tracking supply compared with demand, current supply estimates for 2024 are almost identical to those published last December. As a result of the demand revisions, both OPEC and the IEA now see the oil market as undersupplied in 2024—the IEA had estimated a balanced market for 2024 back in December—while the EIA still projects a modest surplus.

This regular process of demand revisions once again shows that oil demand is much more resilient than expected. Many everyday products are derived from crude oil, and we remain highly dependent on it. As a reference point, in its most recent five-year outlook, published one year ago, the IEA expected oil demand to peak at 105.6mbpd in 2029. Source: IEA, UBS While we will need to wait a few more months for the next IEA five- year outlook, as the report has been postponed, the latest oil market report already puts demand at 105.7mbpd in 2027. We expect oil demand to continue to rise over the coming years, driven by emerging markets.

This report has been prepared by UBS Switzerland AG. Please see important disclaimers and disclosures that begin on page 3.

Ongoing urbanization in emerging markets is likely to support demand growth, particularly in countries with rapid population growth, ambitions for economic development, and low per capita consumption.