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On Deck for Tuesday, August 4th Country Date Time Indicator Period BNS Consensus Latest CA 08-04 08:30 Merchandise Trade Balance (C$ bn) Jun -- 3.0 4.2 US 08-04 08:30 Trade Balance (US$ bn) Jun - GLOBAL ECONOMICS US 08-04 10:00 Factory Orders (m/m) Jun 0.4 0.2 -1.3 US 08-04 10:00 JOLTS Job Openings (000s) Jun --

August 4, 2026 @ 7:15 EST • Oil continues to chase volatile Iran headlines

• Yen resumes depreciation after temporary lift from intervention Contributors • Canadian trade to bolster strong Q2 GDP tracking and solid momentum into Q3 Derek Holt VP & Head of Capital Markets Economics • US JOLTS, trade, factory orders on tap Scotiabank Economics • CGBs rally as Canada returns from long weekend, consolidate post-GDP sell-off • US nonfarm, Canadian jobs, regional central banks to dominate the week ahead

Regular publishing resumes after returning from vacation.

Chart 1 The intractable, spasmodic and downright interminable US war with Iran continues to Canadian Goods Exports Comparison drive market volatility in a Groundhog Day kind of way. Oil was up by US$2–3 earlier this 30 q/q % change, SAAR Q2 morning but has shaved this rise as volatile headlines on negotiations drive what is Tracking probably yet another round of false optimism toward a way out. The effect is contributing 20 toward slightly higher yields led by US Ts and gilts that are cheaper by about 1–2bps 10 across maturities. The popular narrative that the Treasury curve has lost faith in the Fed’s willingness to address inflation risk assumes that bond markets are getting something 0 right for a change. Canadian bonds are an outlier as they catch up following a long -10 weekend by rallying in a way that is partly consolidating the post-GDP sell-off on Friday.

-20 Stocks are generally resilient with most major benchmarks either flat or gaining a touch GDP: Exports this morning. The S&P has nevertheless moved sideways since May. -30 Monthly Trade Data Across currencies, the yen continues to dominate attention. The yen continued to tumble -40 Q1-25 Q2-25 Q3-25 Q4-25 Q1-26 Q2-26 overnight despite apparent recent intervention and US support. Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada. Overnight developments were otherwise sparse with no consequential data or central bank developments. I’m encouraged by the large number of US states suing Washington over its Super 301 tariff abuses that are merely a way of raising taxes on Americans.

On tap will be a few Canadian and US releases this morning.

CANADIAN TRADE TO BOLSTER STRONG Q2 GDP TRACKING Chart 2 Canada’s trade figures for June (8:30amET) will Chart 3

Canadian Goods Imports Comparison close out the quarter and help to further inform our 20 q/q % change, SAAR Q2 GDP views. The quarter has been tracking very strongly thus far in terms of exports (chart 1) 15 GDP: Imports Q2 Monthly Trade Data outpacing growth in imports (chart 2). The charts Tracking 10 compare the trade figures using how they are captured in quarterly GDP accounts and how 5 quarterly tracking of the monthly figures is shaping 0 up.

-5 The trade figures should bolster tracking of strong GDP growth in Q2 that is surpassing the BoC’s -10 expectations. Friday’s monthly figures are tracking -15 3.4% q/q SAAR GDP growth in Q2 for the strongest Q1-25 Q2-25 Q3-25 Q4-25 Q1-26 Q2-26 growth since 2023Q1 (chart 3). The BoC had Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada. Visit our website at scotiabank.com/economics | Follow us on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics | Contact us by email at

forecast 2.5%. There was very high breadth to GDP growth during May when the economy grew by 0.3% m/m SA alongside upward revisions and with June’s preliminary estimate at +0.2% m/m SA. What’s more is that the way Q2 ended bakes in 1% q/q SAAR GDP growth in Q3 before we even begin to get Q3 data which is a good running headstart in terms of sustainability.

JOLTS THE MAIN FEATURE AMONG US RELEASES

The US will refresh a few readings of its own this morning. The trade deficit likely narrowed in June (8:30amET) given what we already know about the goods component but don’t get used to that as the renewed surge in oil prices will probably raise it again in July.

JOLTS job openings during…