Weekly Flows and CFTC Positioning

Net USD Long Steady, Net Gold Longs Jump Again Data in this report covers up to Tuesday August 11th.

Global FX Strategy • CFTC data for the week through August 11th shows little change in speculative FX positioning across the major currencies we follow in this report. The aggregate USD FX SENTIMENT REPORT long fell modestly (by USD382mn) following the sharp retrenchment in overall net August 17, 2026 USD long positioning in the week through August 4th—which reflected heavy JPY short covering. There was no such impetus in the latest data, with investors likely Analyst waiting to see the outcome of last week’s round of US inflation reports before

Shaun Osborne allocating more risk to positioning. It should be stressed that while net speculative Chief FX Strategist USD longs have fallen from the late July peak, this market maintains a very elevated exposure to the long USD trade—and that exposure looks increasingly prone to a squeeze.

Eric Theoret • There was no discernible narrative behind this week’s light positioning changes. Data FX Strategist shows that speculative traders moved to increase net AUD shorts and net EUR shorts modestly in the past week (by USD431mn and USD285mn respectively). Elsewhere, net JPY shorts and net CAD shorts were trimmed back by USD300mn and USD286mn) respectively. Little change in positioning is reflected in the GBP, NZD or CHF contracts while traders added very slightly to net MXN longs (USD231mn).

• While not a primary focus for this report, the sharp increase in net gold longs is notable. Net speculative gold longs jumped last week and added another USD14.7bn in the week through August 11th. Total net long gold contracts have increased by some 23% over the past three months, the most significant build up of net gold longs since the start of the year when investors started to rebuild positioning following the precious metals price collapse in response to President Trump nominated Warsh to head the Fed. Aggressive rebuilding of net gold longs suggests markets are unconvinced by Warsh’s inflation-fighting rhetoric and, at the margin, points to additional downward pressure on the USD.

Sentiment USD mns 11-Aug Bias Trend Position w/w chg. CAD bearish decreasing -12,451 286 EUR bearish increasing -8,658 -285 GBP bearish neutral -4,746 115 AUD bearish increasing -2,770 -431 NZD bearish neutral -2,328 100 MXN bullish neutral 2,449 231 CHF bearish neutral -5,005 66 JPY bearish decreasing -3,303 300 Gold bullish increasing 95,242 14,647 Total USD position ex. Gold 36,811 -382 CAD — NON-COMMERCIAL POSITIONING (USD mn) Position - Contracts of 100,000 CAD Date Net Long Short Net Net w/w Open Int. 11-Aug -12,451 12,854 -186,216 -173,362 5,733 364,104 4-Aug -12,736 13,514 -192,609 -179,095 -2,785 365,083 28-Jul -12,498 22,500 -198,810 -176,310 -1,862 372,447 21-Jul -12,365 27,007 -201,455 -174,448 1,831 365,599

FX Sentiment Report August 17, 2026