DB FX Special Report Where are the AI tails widest

Asia Foreign Exchange Date Europe 25 August 2026 Global FX Special Report

Where are the AI tails widest? Shreyas Gopal n Abundant AI usage could dramatically reduce the marginal cost of Strategist knowledge work in the future. We establish a cross-country framework to find the currencies with the highest potential impact from this disruption, and where the two "tails" of potential macro outcomes are the widest. n We rank thirty currencies across two key dimensions: the labour market and the trade balance. Our aim is not to take a strong view on whether disruption drives a currency to the positive or the negative tail, but instead to identify where the magnitude of the impact is likely to be largest. n Our key conclusion is that the potential range of outcomes is widest for the UK. AI disruption in services could affect a comparatively high share of the domestic workforce, and the UK currently exports a lot of AI-affected services while importing goods and other services. Our analysis suggests the future work of the recently announced UK AI Economics Institute is likely to be especially important for its domestic policy implications. n From an FX perspective, with longer-dated implied volatility in EUR/GBP currently very low by historical standards, option structures like strangles offer an attractive avenue to trade this long-term thematic without needing to take a directional view on which tail is realised.

Figure 1: Which FX could see largest impact - positive or negative - from AI disruption to services?

FX impact from AI disruption to services

Rank of potential trade balance impact (1=highest) low labour mkt, high trade impact high labour mkt, high trade impact 1 GBP 3 PHP INR RON USD ILS 5 CAD 7 COP PLN 9 JPY TRY 11 MXN AUD 13 BRL HUF ZAR 15 IDR NZD EUR 17 19 CZK 21 CLP SEK MYR 23 KRW THB SGD 25 PEN 27 DKK CHF 29 NOK low labour mkt, low trade impact high labour mkt, low trade impact Rank of potential labour market impact (1= highest)

Source : Deutsche Bank, Haver Analytics, IMF

Deutsche Bank AG IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED, PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

25 August 2026 FX Special Report

Introduction AI is already reshaping currency dynamics through multiple macro channels. In the physical world, the capex boom drives localised demand for data centre construction, pushing up wages, requiring tighter monetary policy, and supporting currencies. On the financial side, foreign equity flows around AI-related companies have significantly driven the volatility and direction of currencies like the Korean won.

This report looks ahead to the next phase and one potential landscape beyond the buildout. In a hypothetical world where AI is fully integrated as a once-in-a-century productivity-enhancing technology for services, for which currencies are the stakes the highest to emerge as a winner, and where are the "tails" of potential outcomes the widest?

In this report we provide a framework for FX participants. We approach this from a cross-country perspective, looking at data across thirty liquid currencies. We focus on two dimensions. We start with the labour market, presenting data on relative workforce exposure to AI. Importantly, we adjust for the potential complementarity (augmentation rather than automation) of AI in specific roles. Our second dimension is the trade balance. We evaluate which countries currently rely most on exporting AI-affected services to fund the rest of their international trade. We conclude with some early evidence on cross-country AI adoption and usage.

Our results suggest several currencies could see a large impact (positive or negative) from AI's effect on services: GBP, SGD, ILS, PHP, INR. Of these, overall, our conclusions suggest the single currency with the widest range of outcomes is sterling. With (longer-dated) implied volatility in EUR/GBP very low by historical standards, strangles present one structure through which to trade this thematic, without having to take a strong view yet on which tail is realised.

Labour market The impact of AI upon the labour market…