Early Morning Reid Macro Strategy

DB Early Morning Reid - Macro Strategy

Key Market Data (Index @ Close // Change) (S&P 500 @ 7653 // -0.28%) (STOXX Europe 600 @ 654 // +0.00%) (iTraxx Crossover @ 249 // -2) (Brent Oil^ @ 92.49 // -0.82%) (10yr Treasury^ @ 4.71 // 0 bp) (10yr Bund @ 3.25 // -1 bp) (Dollar Index^ @ 99.05 // +0.26%) (Further Fed hikes/cuts priced for 2026 @ 28 // 2 bp) (Further ECB hikes/cuts priced for 2026 @ 44 // 1 bp) ^ - Change from previous day's 4:30 GMT to 04:30 GMT

Markets started the last week of August in a mixed mood, with bonds supported by a decline in oil prices as the US announcement of economic pressure against Iran didn’t deliver material new measures. However, while yesterday’s decline in Brent crude (-2.35%) helped 10yr Treasuries (-3.7bps) recover, European bond moves were more subdued as European natural gas prices reached their highest level since early 2023. Equities also saw a more cautious performance with the S&P 500 (-0.28%) falling back amid a continued sell-off in chipmakers that saw Nvidia post its longest run of daily declines since 2022 ahead of its results tomorrow.

Starting with Bessent’s announcements on Iran, the US Treasury Secretary threatened secondary sanctions against any country enabling Iran’s economy, calling the move “economic asphyxiation” of Iran’s regime. He noted that Trump is calling world leaders with “specific requests to cease their interactions with the regime”. However, there were no concrete new steps other than sanctioning 60 Iran-linked entities and individuals, with Bessent saying “we are giving everyone the opportunity to remedy bad behavior”. He did add that the US would be sanctioning a major financial institution later this week without naming the target. One of the biggest questions is whether the US could sanction a major Chinese bank for facilitating trade with Iran, with Bessent remaining vague, saying “no one is above the reach of US sanctions” when asked on this.

Iran played down Bessent’s announcement, with its Economy Minister saying “we have been expecting these plans for a long time, and the government has a two-year plan under which it is

fully prepared for these developments.” In the continuing war of words, Trump had also posted on Truth Social earlier in the day that Iran was “completely collapsing”.

In the absence of material escalation and amid continuing grey flows through the Strait of Hormuz, oil markets remained mostly in a wait-and-see mode, with Brent Crude falling back by -2.35% to $92.17/bbl after its +6.63% gain last week. It is largely flat this morning. The dip in oil prices helped bring some relief to bond markets, with US Treasury yields lower across the curve. That was led by the 10yr (-3.7bps to 4.70%) and 30yr (-4.5bps to 5.22%), while the 2yr was little changed (-0.3bps to 4.23%). Treasuries have given up some of those gains overnight, with 10yr USTs trading +1.5bps higher as we go to print.

Yesterday’s bond rally was also helped by a CNBC report that the US Treasury could use the cash in the Treasury General Account to help fund the increase in the buyback operations announced last week. Using the TGA may help fund the larger buyback operations without resorting to higher issuance of short-term debt. Note that while “excess” cash represents a relatively small portion of the $953bn currently in the TGA, this should still be easily sufficient for the larger buybacks planned for the weekly operations in September and October, which were increased from a maximum of $2bn to at least $4bn. However, the amounts involved are trivial in the context of the roughly $2trn annual US federal deficit. It’s also not clear if this reported TGA use will actually take place – Bessent refrained from any new signals on debt management strategy when asked during his press conference yesterday.

The rally in Treasuries also helped longer-dated bond performance in Europe, with yields on 10yr bunds (-0.5bps), OATs (-1.0bps) and gilts (-0.4bps) edging lower. However, shorter- dated yields rose across Europe, with the 2yr bund yield up +2.6bps to a 1-month high of 2.87% with 63bps of further ECB hikes now being priced by next June (+2.9bps on the day).

European bonds weren’t…