Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) 2Q26 Earnings First Take Another Impressive Beat and Raise

Equity Research 5 August 2026 | 8:12AM EDT

Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY): 2Q26 Earnings First Take: Another Impressive Beat and Raise

Even as we were expecting a beat and raise driven by OUS Mounjaro, LLY delivered Asad Haider, CFA | an impressive quarter that beat our/Street expectations. Total Revenue of $23.0bn Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

beat GS/Consensus (Visible Alpha Consensus Data) projections of $20.8bn/$20.6bn, Nick Jennings | driven by the flagship incretin franchise, with OUS Mounjaro beating GS/Consensus Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC by +4%/+14%, US Mounjaro beating by +10%/+10% and Zepbound beating by +8%/+6%. See Exhibit 1 below for key variances. Jeff Su | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Most notably, LLY raised topline guidance by $2.5bn at the midpoint, increasing and tightening the revenue guidance range from $82bn-$85bn to $85bn-$87bn. Heading in to today’s print, we had highlighted that magnitude of the topline guidance raise was going to be the most important variable that would determine the stock’s print-day reaction, where a raise of ~$1bn which had been reflected, vs. the $2bn raise delivered at the top-end of the range, which, in our view, is a positive surprise. In the US, sales benefited from estimates for rebates and discounts adjustment primarily across Trulicity, Zepbound, and Mounjaro, where the US price would have declined by ~-9% vs. -3% reported, a 6% difference which is sizable given the large US revenue base of $10.8bn in 2Q25. 2Q26 results also benefited from a large beat in Jardiance ($500mn), likely driven by sales-based milestone payments from the BI collaboration (1Q26 10-Q $660mn potentially through 2026).

Across other products in focus, Foundayo, relative to recently lowered expectations, delivered above our expectations (albeit small numbers, and potential positive impact from inventory stocking) in its first quarter of launch where light numbers were widely expected — here we will continue monitoring prescription trends. Additionally, while not top-of-mind for current investor psychology, we note impressive performance in the non-incretin portfolio where Ebglyss, Kisunla and the oral SERD all outperformed, underscoring strong commercial execution across the enterprise at a time when LLY is also continuing to diversify via recent early stage BD.

On the 10am ET earnings call, we expect investors to focus on 1) commentary around the Foundayo launch, and expectations for the OUS launch ramp; 2) OUS Mounjaro strength- share, market expansion, depth of cash-pay pool, impact from semaglutide generics; 3) Medicare unlock- any comments around the early impact, where prescription volume has clearly inflected; 4) puts and takes of the guidance raise, and any comments on the run-rate into 2027; and 5) comments around clinical events, including recent retatrutide TRIUMPH-2/3 data (question about cardiovascular benefit and delayed submission timing from 4Q26 to 1Q27), tirzepatide/eloralintide Ph1b combination data and upcoming Ph2 data, as well as

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Goldman Sachs Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY)

Trailblazer-ALZ 3 and EMBER-4 next year.

Exhibit 1: GS vs. Consensus: Income Statement Income Statement 2Q26E Actual vs. GS Consensus Actual GS Consensus Total Revenue $20,827 $20,622 $22,974 10.3% 11.4% COGS $3,395 $3,448 $3,143 -7.4% -8.8%

Gross Profit $17,432 $17,174 $19,831 13.8% 15.5% R&D $4,207 $4,039 $3,819 -9.2% -5.5% SG&A $3,332 $3,265 $3,430 2.9% 5.1%

Adj. EBIT ex. IPR&D $9,893 $9,871 $12,582 27.2% 27.5%

Adj. EPS including guided IPR&D $5.81 $6.19 $8.38 44.3% 35.4%

Margins: GS Consensus Actual GS Consensus Gross Margin 83.7% 83.3% 86.3% 262bps 304bps R&D % of Revenue 20.2% 19.6% 16.6% (-358)bps (-296)bps SG&A % of…