Global Credit Trader An Update on AI Related Debt Issuance

Credit Strategy Research 17 September 2026 | 6:58PM EDT

An Update on AI-Related Debt Issuance

n In late July, we outlined our top-down framework for AI-related debt issuance Amanda Lynam, CPA | from the hyperscalers, using the CapEx estimates from our colleagues in GIR Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC equity research as a key input. At the time, our estimate for 35% of 2027 CapEx Spencer Rogers, CFA to be financed with debt mapped to roughly $400 billion of gross debt issuance, | globally, directly issued from the group. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Sara Grut n Several weeks later—and with the benefit of the most recent round of earnings | Goldman Sachs International results—we refresh the gross hyperscaler issuance implied by our forecasts. We Shamshad Ali now expect $420 billion of gross debt issuance in 2027, which reflects some | modest upward revisions in CapEx forecasts. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

n This forecast would represent more than a 60% increase vs. our full-year 2026 estimate of $250 billion of direct global hyperscaler IG debt issuance. So far this year, $229 billion has been issued across a range of currencies. We continue to expect 65% to 75% of the 2027 hyperscaler gross debt issuance to price in the USD IG bond market, subject to market conditions and investor receptivity in light of issuer concentration considerations. n So far this year, we have tracked $578 billion of global, gross AI-related debt issuance, which includes a broad universe of firms. Hyperscalers continue to represent ‘just’ 40% of overall AI-related debt issuance, underscoring the wide range of AI-related exposure in the global credit markets. n The performance bifurcation between AI-related spreads and the rest of the market persists. We believe the relative resilience of the broader USD IG market reflects two key factors. First is the combination of a supportive macro, including solid economic activity, constructive credit fundamentals, and demand from yield-based investors. The second factor is the diversification value provided by bonds in larger sectors more directly removed from the AI theme, including Banks, Energy, and Healthcare, among others. n The share of AI-related notional across the IG and HY corporate credit indices has been increasing. The largest exposure is in the USD IG market, at 12% of total notional, followed by USD HY at 6%. In the EUR market, the figures are more contained at 3% for IG and 1% for HY. We see meaningful scope for this to grow as the multi-year issuance cycle extends.

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Goldman Sachs Global Credit Trader

An Update on AI-Related Debt Issuance

In late July, we outlined our top-down framework for AI-related debt issuance from the hyperscalers, using the CapEx estimates from our colleagues in GIR equity research as a key input. At the time, our estimate for 35% of 2027 CapEx to be financed with debt mapped to roughly $400 billion of gross debt issuance, globally, directly issued from the group. (Note: this excludes project finance issuance for data center and chip financing, which we forecast separately, expecting $300 billion in 2027).

Several weeks later—and with the benefit of the most recent round of earnings results— we refresh the gross hyperscaler issuance implied by our forecasts. As Exhibit 1 illustrates, we now expect $420 billion of gross debt issuance, which reflects some modest upward revisions in CapEx forecasts. Our colleagues in GIR equity research have recently highlighted the ongoing supply-demand imbalance related to the AI build out and expect the CapEx cycle through the end of 2027 to remain elevated.

Exhibit 1: We expect 35% of CapEx in 2027 will be debt financed GIR Equity Research CapEx estimates and our estimates of hyperscaler IG gross debt issuance ($bn), as a share of CapEx (RHS)

2,000 Hyperscaler global gross debt issuance 50 1,800 Share of CapEx that is debt funded (RHS) 45 1,600 40 1,400 35 1,200 30 1, A 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E

Note: As of September 15, 2026. Excludes data center financings issued by…