Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) Commercial Momentum, Uninterrupted

Equity Research 6 August 2026 | 6:00AM EDT

Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY): Commercial Momentum, Uninterrupted

Shares of LLY traded up +4.5% (vs. DRG +1.9%) on the back of an impressive set of Asad Haider, CFA | 2Q results that again featured a larger-than-anticipated beat/raise surpassing the Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

expectation that had been reflected in the stock ahead of the print. Broad based Nick Jennings | strength across the incretin portfolio continued to drive the upside, alongside Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC ongoing momentum in OUS Mounjaro which underscores the OUS volume tailwinds we recently incorporated into our global anti-obesity market model to reflect Jeff Su | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC evolving dynamics in the burgeoning international weight-loss market.

On themes from the earnings call, we note (i) volume tailwinds in the US from the July 1st Medicare obesity coverage unlock are starting to take hold with share dynamics accruing to LLY, consistent with our recent KOL survey; (ii) Foundayo’s launch is building momentum, where, relative to recently lowered investor expectations, LLY highlighted encouraging leading indicators based on real-time launch metrics in the US, and on early uptake trends OUS; (iii) OUS generic semaglutide has had minimal impact so far on pricing and volumes, and (iv) LLY’s non-incretin business is picking up momentum, both commercially and in the pipeline — while these segments have been less relevant for current investor psychology, given the lower relative contribution, we expect they could start to get increasing attention into 2027. On M&A, where LLY has been the industry’s most active YTD acquirer, we were intrigued by management comments in the prepared remarks highlighting that the pace and average deal size have both been increasing in their recent deployment of the BD-lever, which could suggest larger deals.

Looking ahead, on clinical events, we expect particular interest in the elora + tirzpetide combo Ph2 data in diabetes (late Sept EASD meeting) after impressive early data in obesity, that could showcase yet another program in LLY’s rapidly evolving next gen obesity engine. More importantly, on the numbers trajectory, which has been a key driver of stock performance, we continue to see scope for upward sales revisions. The company is now guiding to a 2026 revenue range of $85bn-$87bn in a second sizable sequential step-up vs. the guidance entering this year ($80-$83bn) — as we incorporate the quarter’s update into our model, we raise our 2026 revenue projection to $88.5bn (vs. prior $86.1bn) and remain above the top-end of the company’s guidance range on fairly conservative forecasting assumptions. We also raise our EPS projections for FY26/27/28, and increase our 12m PT by ~7% to $1,367.

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Goldman Sachs Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY)

Notable Takeaways from the 2Q26 Earnings Call n Volume tailwinds from the Medicare obesity coverage unlock are starting to emerge. While still early days, roughly one-month into the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program which started on July 1st, LLY said they are seeing a clear inflection in demand from new patients for both Zepbound and Foundayo over the past few weeks, with a significant preference toward injectables from the pool of ~20mn eligible potential patients where 80% of scripts in Bridge are on injectable therapies, per management. We note this is consistent with our recent analysis of GLP-1 prescription trends following Bridge which shows the most significant inflection in LLY’s Zepbound Kwikpen. This is also consistent with our recent obesity model update where we had expected Zepbound Kwikpen to accrue the most share, as highlighted earlier…