Fluence Energy Inc. (FLNC) First Take Revenue miss and FY26 guidance cut disappointing, but record orders (incl. hyperscale...)

Equity Research 5 August 2026 | 10:12PM EDT

Fluence Energy Inc. (FLNC): First Take: Revenue miss and FY26 guidance cut disappointing, but record orders (incl. hyperscaler) in focus

FLNC reported an F3Q26 revenue miss due to production delays at two new contract Brian Lee, CFA | manufacturing facilities, with lower revenue and new-product and supply-chain Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

costs pressuring margins and adjusted EBITDA. Management reduced its F2026 Tyler Bisset, CFA | revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, reflecting delayed facility ramps that shift Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

expected revenue into F2027. We expect shares to underperform meaningfully on Keshav Choudhary | the back of signs of another mis-execution hiccup, however, we note demand does Goldman Sachs India SPL appear to remain – despite the operational issues – with FLNC reporting record order intake, record backlog, and its first slug of hyperscaler orders. Please find our initial takeaways within this report ahead of the company’s 8:30 a.m. ET conference call on 8/6.

n Revenue below expectations, while margins and adj. EBITDA weaken. FLNC reported F3Q26 revenue of ~$650mn, below GSe/Factset consensus of $737mn/$819mn. Adj. EBITDA of ~($29mn) came in under GSe/consensus of $7mn/$14mn as well. Additionally, non-GAAP gross margin of 5.9% was well below our forecast of 13.2%. Management attributed the shortfall primarily to production delays at two new contract manufacturing facilities, including a ~three-month delay at the Houston enclosure facility and initial quality issues at an international facility. Gross profit of ~$33mn also reflected lower revenue, ~$15mn of new-product rollout and production-delay costs, and ~$15mn of upfront battery-cell supply agreement costs. n F2026 guidance reduced. FLNC reduced its F2026 revenue guidance to $2.9bn-$3.1bn ($3.2bn-$3.6bn prior) and adjusted EBITDA guidance to ($30mn)-$10mn ($40mn-$60mn prior), while maintaining its expectation for annual recurring revenue of ~$180mn exiting F2026. The ~$400mn reduction versus prior revenue guidance midpoint reflects delayed facility ramps, shifting related revenue into F2027. The ~$60mn adjusted EBITDA midpoint reduction includes ~$44mn from the revenue shift and ~$15mn of upfront battery-cell supply agreement costs. n Record order intake and backlog support demand visibility. Quarterly order intake totaled ~$1.44bn and orders YTD totaled ~$2.7bn, up ~80% yoy. The company’s backlog increased to a record $6.4bn from $5.6bn last quarter, the highest level in company history. Moreover, FLNC secured ~$850mn of data-center business through July, including a ~$300mn behind-the-meter order signed during F3Q26 and ~$550mn of hyperscaler awards in July. The

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Goldman Sachs Fluence Energy Inc. (FLNC)

current data-center pipeline reached 16GWh, up more than 35% sequentially. Additionally, contracted backlog for Energy Storage/Services/Digital moved to 12.6GW/7.9GW/13.9GW as of 6/30/2026 from 10.1GW/7.7GW/14.4GW as of 3/31/2026.

Our 12-month price target of $22.00 is based 50% on a DCF value assuming a 4.5% terminal growth rate, and 50% on an EV/Sales valuation of $23.00 using a 1x on our FY2027E revenue.

Key risks include slower than expected energy storage adoption, slower energy storage revenue recognition, worse supply chain impacts such as battery shortages and/or logistics issues, litigation outcomes, and the timing of mix shift from hardware to software revenue.

FLNC 12m Price Target: $22.00 Price: $14.23 Upside: 54.6%

Buy GS Forecast 9/25 9/26E 9/27E 9/28E Market cap: $2.6bn Revenue ($ mn) 2,262.8 3,393.7 3,928.6 4,440.4 Enterprise value: $2.4bn EBITDA ($ mn) m ADTV…