Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) 2Q26 Full year US guidance downgraded amid higher investment

Equity Research 5 August 2026 | 1:31PM BST

Flutter Entertainment (FLUT): 2Q26: Full year US guidance downgraded amid higher investment; CEO transition announced

Flutter published 2Q26 results today (5th August), with modest outperformance Ben Andrews, CFA | vs. expectations in 2Q but a downgrade to full-year guidance for the US. In 2Q, Goldman Sachs International US Adj. EBITDA was +$119mn, slightly ahead of Visible Alpha Consensus Data Poppy Boyd-Taylor estimates ($107mn) and ahead of the company’s prior implied guidance. | poppy.boyd- International Adj. EBITDA of $476mn was also stronger (c.3% ahead of VA cons: Goldman Sachs International

$461mn). However, for FY26 guidance, US revenue and EBITDA are downgraded by Leo Mose | -5%/-22% respectively at the mid-point, primarily reflecting higher investment, Goldman Sachs International while International revenue and EBITDA is unchanged at the mid-point — see more detail below.

CEO transition: Alongside the results, Flutter announced that Peter Jackson will be stepping down as Group CEO and from the Flutter Board on September 30th 2026, and will remain an advisor through the end of the year. Dan Taylor, currently CEO of International and Flutter President, will take over the role of Group CEO and join the Board on October 1st 2026.

US: Underlying the 2Q print, US revenues of $1.68bn (-6% yoy) came in-line with our/consensus forecasts, with better handle growth and stronger structural win margins (supported by high parlay penetration during the World Cup) offsetting high promos and lighter iGaming growth. Management also noted that they generated $6mn of revenue from market-making for prediction markets in 2Q.

Flutter downgraded US FY26 guidance by c.-5% for revenue and c.-22% for EBITDA relative to the previous midpoint to capture (1) the net effect of increased sportsbook investment (c.-$385m revenue, c.-$270m EBITDA); (2) adverse phasing impact of one-week delay in NFL season (-$75m revenue, -$50m EBITDA); (3) expected market making revenue (+$50mn for revenue/EBITDA); (4) additional operating cost savings (+$45mn for EBITDA); and (5) positive impact of 2Q trading (+$16m revenue, +$15m EBITDA vs. the prior implied guidance).

This resulted in new FY26 US guidance:

n US total revenue of $7.125-7.675bn (vs. $7.395-8.195bn previously; GSe: $7.768bn; cons: $7.689bn). n US total Adj. EBITDA of $0.6-0.92bn (vs. $0.77-1.17bn previously; GSe: $0.952bn; Cons: $0.904bn).

International: The revenue performance in the International division was stronger

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Goldman Sachs Flutter Entertainment (FLUT)

than consensus expectations (2Q revenues of $2.64bn, +4% yoy organic), driven by SEA, Australia and CEE, and EBITDA came in c.3% above consensus too. Flutter’s FY26 guidance for the International division was narrowed, with no change at the mid-point, as stronger 2Q trading is offset by unfavourable FX:

n International Revenue of $10.31-10.71bn (vs. previously $10.26-10.76bn; vs. GSe: $10.655bn; Cons: $10.516bn). n International Adj. EBITDA of $2.105-2.305bn (vs. previously $2.08-2.33bn; GSe: $2.242bn; Cons: $2.203bn).

A full summary of guidance changes can be found in Exhibit 3.

Current trading: Early 3Q trading has been ahead of expectations, with slightly favourable sports results and a benefit from the World Cup.

Buybacks: Flutter completed the $250mn buyback guided for 1H26. No incremental buyback plans for 2H26 were announced with today’s release.

GS view: This is another set of disappointing results from Flutter overall, characterised by a FY26 guidance cut for the US that implies another downgrade to sell-side consensus expectations (c.16% cut to US FY26 EBITDA at the mid-point).…