Germany Strong Factory Orders and Weak Manufacturing Turnover in June, with Negative Backward Revisions

Economics Research 6 August 2026 | 11:38AM CEST

Germany: Strong Factory Orders and Weak Manufacturing Turnover in June, with Negative Backward Revisions

BOTTOM LINE: Today’s manufacturing data for June were mixed but generally Niklas Garnadt | surprised to the upside. Manufacturing orders increased by +3.1%mom in June, Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE above consensus expectations (+0.5%) and were up +1.3% on a less volatile 3m3m Giovanni Pierdomenico basis. Manufacturing orders excluding major orders were weaker and declined by | -0.5%mom, and are flat on a 3m3m basis. Industrial turnover declined by -1.3%mom Goldman Sachs International

in June, notably less than the preliminary estimate of -3.8% suggested, and is up +0.1% on a 3m3m basis. Notably both manufacturing turnover and order growth, which are recorded in real terms, were revised down by 1.6pp for May as a result of an upward revision of price deflators, painting a more muted picture of manufacturing activity in Q2. As a result of the better than expected turnover growth, we expect tomorrow’s industrial production data to show flat growth in June (vs. a -0.1%mom decline we expected previously).

Manufacturing Orders (June): +3.1%, Consensus: +0.5%, Previous: +0.3%, revised down from +1.9% (all figures mom, non-annualised)

Manufacturing Turnover (June): -1.3%, Preliminary Estimate: -3.8%, Previous: +0.2%, revised down from +1.8% (all figures mom, non-annualised)

1. German manufacturing orders increased by +3.1%mom in June, an upside surprise to consensus expectations (+0.5%). Manufacturing orders excluding major orders were weaker and declined by -0.5%mom. On the less volatile 3m3m sequential basis, orders were up by +1.3% while orders excluding major orders were flat. Computers, electronics and optical equipment (+22.7%) and machinery and equipment (+12.7%) boosted order intake due to big ticket orders. Vehicle manufacturing also recorded a healthy increase in June (+3.8%), rebounding from a weak May. Orders for other transport equipment dropped notably in June (-41.7%) after a strong May, although the statistical office cautions that data collection for major orders was incomplete in this industry.

2. Industrial turnover declined by -1.3%mom in June, better than the preliminary estimate of -3.8% suggested. On a 3m3m sequential basis, turnover increased by +0.1%. Across sectors, other transport equipment (+18.5%), textiles & apparel (+2.7%) and electrical equipment (+1.5%) contributed most positively, while rubber & plastics (-3.5%) and pharmaceuticals (-7.2%) contributed quite negatively. Generally, energy-intensive industries such as chemicals, non-metallic minerals and basic metals performed a bit worse after relatively stronger months early into the

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energy price shock due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could point to an unwind of precautionary purchases.

3. Across markets, the non-Euro area markets performed strongest, with both orders and sales increasing notably. On the negative side, Euro area markets performed weakest against the trend observed since late last year, with orders and sales declining strongly, retracing from a strong May. Domestic orders increased on the back of volatile major orders, while domestic turnover declined.

4. Taken together, today’s orders data indicate a relatively robust manufacturing outlook for the second half of the year although the time lag between major orders and sales is typically a bit longer. That said, the decline in turnover in June and the large negative backward revisions to May substantially moderate the positive view on the spot data in Q2, as real turnover increased by just +0.1%qoq vs. a +0.7%qoq increase in Q1 and imply negative carryover into Q3. For tomorrow’s June industrial production print we slightly upgrade our expectation to flat growth (vs. -0.1%mom before) as turnover declined by less than we previously assumed. A decline in manufacturing and construction production should be balanced by higher energy…