Global daily even more and less of the same things

Marketing communication 09 September 2026

Even more --and less-- of the same things Global Daily

RaboResearch Market comment Global Economics & Markets The US just hit five more Iranian oil tankers, citing attempted strikes on one of its warships, knowledge.rabobank.com and warned more will be sunk if Iran tries it again. It also imposed more economic war via aviation sanctions. The Saudis and Houthis are on the brink of new war after a series of strikes at Michael Every Saudi cities, followed by Riyadh’s reprisals and the threat of “consequences [the Houthis] cannot Global Strategist handle.” Qatar and the UAE both said the Gulf cannot rely on US alone for the region's security: but Russia can’t extend power there now; China can’t or doesn’t want to; Europe can’t and won’t – so that leaves Turkey and Israel, both eyeing the other suspiciously; and as France and Canada joined the UK in issuing trade sanctions on Israeli settlements, the EU reportedly wants to pursue closer Israel ties on air defence and space.

Oil remains close to $100, and notably Shanghai oil is now trading higher than Brent having been vastly lower in the early stages of the Iran War. Crack spreads remain worryingly high all over. Refined product stocks remain worryingly low.

Trump spoke to Putin as Hungary expelled 10 Russian diplomats to Moscow’s threats of a harsh response. Iceland summoned the US ambassador over Trump’s Stars and Stripes map Truth post showing the US flag covering Canada, Mexico, Greenland, and Iceland. Israel shut down the UK consulate in Jerusalem. The British Army has reportedly been ordered to save money by using reservists less, and flights were grounded across the UK due to a tech issue – showing the impact ‘grey zone’ attacks can have. The Hong Kong press notes China is boosting Pakistani drone defences ‘as India tensions simmer’, and ‘How Japan is digging in to deter –and withstand– a conflict over Taiwan.’ All the kind of thing to rattle the long end of government bond yield curves.

Maritime nations are warning that global shipping rules are collapsing, which could take much global trade with it as some worry if there is enough bunker fuel for the ships to use. While the Suez Canal is seeing more passages as tankers try to avoid Hormuz, the Panama Canal is warning of deeper transit cuts as the El Nino drought threat intensifies. Further north, and next to Europe, Russia is betting on a $400bn Arctic Transport Corridor but can’t fund it without China.

Brussels warned China it ‘must buy more’ from the EU to avoid a trade war: but what exactly? The old joke vs. the US was ‘Will you sell us aircraft carriers?’ China now builds its own faster. Europe has few resources China needs or goods it doesn’t make itself. Even EU luxury brands are less popular as Beijing prioritises domestic brands. Perhaps the EU could sell China more tech from ASML, to a new trans-Atlantic storm? Meanwhile, EU industry claims it faces 300,000 job cuts as China “colonises” its supply chains, and European “wealth” is threatened by the decline of its carmakers, with a deleterious effect on the steel, aluminium, glass, and chemical sectors needed for rearmament. Again, not much fun for the long end of bond markets if they think about it.

Canadian counter tariffs on the US went into effect; the US is to ban Canadian dairy and some alcohol and motor vehicles from September 29, as well as Canadian firms from government contracts in response. The Globe and Mail opines, ‘With this trade war, Canada faces its Singapore moment’. The National Post says, ‘Canadians support hard line against US, but don't want to pay for it’, as “When asked if they would pay an extra C$500 per year to hold the line in the current trade war, 56% called this ‘unacceptable’.” Becoming Singapore implies paying vastly more than C$500 per year.

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US Secretary of State Rubio is seeking more economic and security ties in Latin America, which has an FTA with the EU, which doesn’t offer the same security ties. He’s in Colombia to ‘clarify’ its China links and to sign a minerals…