Global daily operation economic outcast but of whom

Marketing communication 25 August 2026

Operation Economic Outcast: but of whom? Global Daily

RaboResearch Market comment Global Economics & Markets US Treasury Secretary Bessent took out a tactical nuke in saying he could use $1trn from the knowledge.rabobank.com Treasury General Account to fund Special Military Operation Twist bond buybacks vs. the $2bn per round increase we saw last week. That looks a lot like the ‘Whatever It Takes’ mentioned Michael Every yesterday: his former mentor Stan Druckenmiller is not a fan, apparently. Global Strategist He also launched ‘Operation Economic Outcast’ to isolate and squeeze Iran further on top of US sanctions and a blockade against its oil. Those helping Iran will face secondary sanctions escalating to their removal from the US dollar system, as nuclear a weapon as financial warfare can wield. However, when asked why he didn’t impose them immediately, Bessent replied, “Why would I want to blow up the global financial system?” He will first try to persuade key parties to walk away from Iran: yet some have real nuclear weapons and others control rare earths and global supply chains. The stakes here are therefore sky high, unless this is a bluff.

Tehran said it would retaliate to sanctions by land, sea, air, or cyber-attacks; trolled it might kill Barron Trump, as Israeli PM Netanyahu claimed it had threatened one his sons too; continued to threaten ships transiting Hormuz; the Houthis struck a Saudi tanker in the Red Sea, which neither Egypt nor Turkey responded to; the Saudis held talks about a state-backed war insurance plan for shipping like the US one that didn’t work; China sent PLA jets to drill alongside Egypt’s; China reported it has boosted coal's economic value by 700% after turning it to liquids, underlining it’s much more energy secure than before; a US defence start-up is making thousands of drone interceptors in the UAE for $5,000, cheaper than Iranian attack drones; and Greece warned Turkey against violating its “sovereign rights” and vowed to respond from a “position of strength.”

In Ukraine, EU leaders, and no US representative, offered help to Kyiv as it faces another €23n defence funding hole, albeit managing to hit Russia's Afipsky oil refinery as well as another e- commerce giant. Russia threatened to hit UK factories making defence parts for Ukraine.

Trump may impose a 7.5% ‘overcapacity’ tariff on China ahead of the Xi state visit, clearly a negotiating card. He will also raise the tariff on Canadian autos and trucks from 25% to 50% from 1 January in response to PM Carney’s ‘elbows up’. Ottawa now faces the choice of matching those tariffs, retreating, or doing what those who oppose tariffs as self-harm never do: slash their levies and enjoy cheap imports replacing local production. Alberta Premier Smith, where a vote on a secession referendum looms in October, had to stress it’s “not viable” to cut off energy exports to the US; and with warnings US-Canada trade war could affect their defence relationship, Carney said he will begin negotiations with the EU about deepening trade and defence relations.

That makes political but not geostrategic sense. Canada isn’t in Europe so can’t join the EU, but if it were to enter a customs union it would surrender sovereignty: and would Europe buy Canadian cars, trucks, planes, agri products, or its fossil fuels given plans to decarbonise? They’d like its critical minerals, but can buy them now. Canada would be sending its goods to a bloc far away over seas neither it nor the EU have the navies to protect, as both are defence under-spenders relative to their huge needs. Both rely on the US for defence and, increasingly, for AI. Yet both assume a benign US stance if they push ahead without it, strategically, even while saying they are doing so because they don’t see the US as benign. That logical inconsistency implies either the strategy is hollow, or will need filling with a greater shift to economic statecraft replete with risks.

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Equally, some may picture a ‘blue’ bloc from Canada to Armenia as Yerevan said…