Global Market Intelligence | August Checklist

The S&P 500 has made 26 all-time highs this year despite a wall of macro worry. Why?

Because underneath the noise, the balance of flows is beginning to shift.

The macro crosscurrents are real, dispersion remains extreme, and positioning has moved quickly. There are plenty of reasons to be cautious, which is why most of my inbound continues to focus on the same question: What can go wrong?

That question still matters. But for August, I think there is a more interesting one:

Who becomes a buyer higher? The answer matters because the list of buyers is getting longer.

Earnings are beating while multiples compress. The leverage reset has largely run its course, creating room for systematic strategies to add exposure as volatility falls. Retail is buying again. Passive demand remains relentless. More than $1 trillion of corporate buyback authorizations are coming back into an open window. Breadth is improving, correlation is near record lows, and investors are increasingly willing to pay for upside.

No single one of these forces determines the market.

But when several sources of demand strengthen at the same time that selling pressure fades, the flow asymmetry changes.

Earlier this year, the market was absorbing deleveraging and crowded positioning. Today, much of that pressure has passed, buying capacity is rebuilding, and the first signs of upside demand are beginning to emerge.

Here are the 10 things on my GMI Checklist right now.

1. Earnings: Better than Feared 2. Valuation: Earnings are Doing the Work 3. Leverage: The Reset is Mature 4. Retail: Buyers are Back 5. Passive Flows: The Bid Never Left 6. Buybacks: $1 Trillion Comes Back Online 7. Index Construction: SPX is Not the Market 8. Dispersion: Breadth Up, Correlation Down 9. Volatility: Below 15 Changes the Math 10. Options: Hedging the Right Tail GMI Bottom Line

1. Earnings: Better than Feared Start with earnings.

Q2 is tracking toward one of the largest beats on record, with S&P 500 EPS growth running at approximately 33%, the strongest pace outside of post- recession recoveries.

Companies are not simply beating elevated expectations. They are driving the steepest earnings revision path since at least 2000.

Importantly, this is not just an AI story. The macro debate remains complicated, but the message from corporate America is much simpler:

Earnings are better than expected, and by a wide margin.

S&P 500 EPS – Quarterly Revision Paths Since Q1’2000 (106 Quarters), Indexed to the Start of Earnings Month