Global Markets Daily Tracking Shifts in the Market’s AI Views

Economics Research 25 August 2026 | 12:14PM EDT

Global Markets Daily: Tracking Shifts in the Market’s AI Views

n The tension between the growing value that the market has built into AI-related Vickie Chang | equities and the optimistic assumptions about the ultimate economic gains from Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC AI necessary to justify that value leave the market vulnerable to challenges to the optimistic story. n A key distinction between the possible narratives that could shift the AI story is whether the shift in market view is around the aggregate gains to corporate revenues from AI or around the distribution of AI revenues. n We introduce a framework here that tracks how the market is shifting its views on both the aggregate and distributional outlook for AI, using the moves in semiconductor and hyperscaler equities. n These simple measures suggest that even against a backdrop of significant macro shocks, there have been distinct periods during which the market’s AI views shifted meaningfully in different ways. n The brief AI optimism of early August has faded somewhat. A strong earnings season for the hyperscalers has assuaged deeper worries around the AI trade but has not been enough to establish a new direction. We will be watching to see if the last of the major tech earnings releases due this week provides a sufficient catalyst to restart a more persistent shift in the AI narrative.

Tracking Shifts in the Market’s AI Views

The value that has been built into AI-related equities has continued to grow, and more optimistic assumptions about the economic gains from AI that will accrue to US companies are now necessary to justify that value. This tension leaves the market vulnerable to any challenges to the optimistic story.

A key distinction that we see across the many possible different narratives that could create risk to the AI story are whether a shock shifts views on the aggregate gains to corporate revenues from AI (“the size of the pie”) or around the distribution of AI revenues (“the share of the pie”). That distinction is critical to understanding the impact of different AI worries on markets.

As the AI theme continues to evolve, it would be useful to have some simple proxies for how the market is shifting its views on both the aggregate and distributional outlook for AI and to be able to look through time at the evolution of the market’s views around these risks.

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to

Goldman Sachs Global Markets Daily

To do this, we adapt a framework that we regularly use to measure shifts in the market’s views of “growth” and “monetary policy”. That method relies on the co-movement between US equities and US yields. To identify shifts in the market’s views around AI, we focus on the co-movement between the equity prices of semiconductor companies and hyperscalers. We rely on the intuition that:

1. An improvement to the market’s view of the “aggregate” value of AI for US companies should move semiconductor and hyperscaler equities higher together as the market view of the total “size of the pie” increases. 2. A shift in the market’s view of the “distribution” of AI gains—who wins, who loses, and who gets what “share of the pie”—should push hyperscalers and semiconductor equities in different directions as the market redistributes value across different parts of the market.1

We estimate a structural vector autoregression (VAR) identified with those sign restrictions, using daily returns in semiconductor equities and hyperscaler equities since 2025. We adjust both versus the performance of the broad US equity market (the equal-weight S&P 500). Exhibit 1 shows the “aggregate” and “distributional” shocks from this model. A “positive” aggregate shock (dark blue line higher) can be interpreted as an increase in the market’s view of the aggregate value of AI. A “higher” distributional shock here (light blue line higher) can be interpreted as the market shuffling value towards semis away from hyperscalers.2

Exhibit 1: “Aggregate AI” and “Distributional AI”…