Global Semis CHIPS IV China Semis self sufficiency builds

Equity Research 24 August 2026 | 12:06AM HKT

CHIPS IV: China Semis self-sufficiency builds

In 2023 amid the challenged constraints on talent, equipment, and advanced-node Allen Chang | chips, we set out our first piece (report link) answering the question of what it would Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. take to build a self-sufficient semiconductor supply chain, how much capital might Verena Jeng be required and what are the key factors to drive China’s success in Semis. In this | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. fourth edition after 3 years, our analysis shows: James Schneider, Ph.D. | n Ongoing build of supply chain - filling the gaps: Our SPE map shows expansion Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC from Etcher and Deposition to premium models (e.g. high aspect ratio etcher, Shuhei Nakamura atomic layer deposition) and more comprehensive categories: Ion Implanter, | Inspection, Metrology. Foundry towards 7nm and below with chiplet and Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.

advanced packaging to drive production yield rate. AI chips toward 4 PFLOPS in Alexander Duval | FP8 (4Q28, link) from 320 TFLOPS in FP16 (2023), with SuperPods to drive Goldman Sachs International system-level computing power. Memory towards LPDDR6 (4Q26, link) and Giuni Lee HBM3 & 3E (4Q26, report link) from LPDDR4(X) (2024, report link). EDA expands | Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte from analog to digital with more tools (e.g. Place and Route; Physical verification) Daiki Takayama and memory EDA. | Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. n Ambitious capex targets that amounts to US$82bn in 2030E, or raised by Yifan Hu 79% to capture the growing demand driven by self-sufficiency, generative AI, | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. and customers’ “local for local” strategy. We estimate China 7nm and below logic Ting Song S/D gap to narrow to 34% by 2035E, and CXMT’s supply to capture 50% of China | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. DRAM demand by 2028E, driven by capacity expansion and yield rate ramp-up. Chao Wang | kuan- n What China still needs to do: China IC volume self-sufficiency is at 70% in June Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei 2026 (vs. 38% in Jan 2010), while the value S/D gap remains wide given lack of Branch

Lithography; R&D and Capex gap vs. global leader remains wide despite strong Anmol Makkar | increases, suggesting more capital required to go global. We introduce China Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC GPU and DRAM TAMs in this report. Kaho Otake n Initiating on China’s DRAM leader, CXMT, at Buy with 12M TP at Rmb129: We | Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. expect capacity to more than double by 2030E vs. 2026E to 665k wpm, leading Anant Jakhar | its conventional DRAM supply to reach 41% / 50% of Samsung / SK Hynix by Goldman Sachs India SPL 2028E from 28% / 35% in 2025. Taeyong Lee | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch

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Portfolio Summary: Ongoing build of China Semis

In the first report (2023, report link), we laid out the pieces of the technology puzzle necessary for China to realize self-sufficiency in semiconductors. In the second piece (2024, report link), we reviewed China Semis Capex and drivers, where we see mature nodes have expanded more vs. advanced nodes. In the third piece (2025, report link), we raised China Semis Capex by single digit on both mature nodes and advanced nodes logics and memory, updated local SPE coverage map, and reviewed existing Lithography in China vs. China advanced nodes demand. In this fourth edition (2026), we analyze and update:

n Product development: China Semis supply chain continues to develop and fill the gap, driven by (1) generative AI: driving supply chain toward advanced nodes chips design and fabrication, advanced packaging…