The 720 China Semis & CXMT initiation, Samsung Electronics, Japan SPE, China Matters, Jackson Hole, NEC, Li Ning, Zijin Mining

Equity Research 24 August 2026 | 7:26AM HKT

The 720: China Semis & CXMT initiation, Samsung Electronics, Japan SPE, China Matters, Jackson Hole, NEC, Li Ning, Zijin Mining

In Focus | China Semis & CXMT initiation Michael Snaith | Global Semis – CHIPS IV: China Semis Self-Sufficiency Builds. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Caleb Chan In 2023, amid constraints on talent, equipment, and advanced-node chips, we set | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. out in our first edition of CHIPS (report link) to answer the question of what it would take for China to build a self-sufficient semiconductor supply chain, how much capital might be required and key factors that would drive success in Semis. Three years later, our fourth edition shows: (1) the ongoing build out of the supply chain - filling the gaps across SPE, Foundry, AI chips, Memory, EDA; (2) ambitious capex targets that amount to US$82bn in 2030E, or raised by 79%; (3) Lithography remains the key to closing the value S/D gap; R&D and Capex vs. global leaders remains wide despite the strong increase, suggesting more capital will be required to go global; and (4) we introduce our China GPU and DRAM TAM. We also initiate on CXMT (China’s DRAM leader) at Buy. Our TP of Rmb129 implies 24x 2027E P/E vs. +77% 2027-28E avg. EPS, driven by AI spending and customer supply diversification. We expect CXMT’s capacity to more than double by 2030E vs. 2026E to 665k wpm, positioning it to capture strong demand, while product mix upgrades toward HBM should unlock further opportunities in China’s AI market. Allen Chang

Listen Up - GS Webcasts on the Agenda

China in Motion: Macro & Strategy | 10am HK | Global Macro, Activity Data, Market Views | Access Webinar | with Hui Shan, Xinquan Chen, Chelsea Song, Kinger Lau, Si Fu & Kevin Wang (in Mandarin)

Global Macro – Jackson Hole Roadmap 2026. We preview the upcoming Federal Reserve annual symposium in Jackson Hole, which serves as the highest profile opportunity to hear from policymakers ahead of the resumption of rate decisions in the fall. Chairman Warsh will deliver his first keynote address as Fed Chair on Friday morning, and while the speech usually focuses on current policy issues, there is uncertainty around whether he will provide a big-picture view or a traditional preview of upcoming actions. We note that Jackson Hole speeches under recent leadership have generated larger FX moves, though a Chair’s first speech does not necessarily generate higher volatility. Beyond the scheduled panels featuring global central bankers, we will be closely watching televised sideline interviews, which are often the most relevant for near-term policy news given the Chair’s recent reluctance

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.

to provide forward guidance. Lexi Kanter

Themes in Play | Samsung Electronics, Japan Semi Equipment, China Matters, Humanoid Robots

Samsung Electronics – 2026 shareholder returns of ~W100tn to drive multiples – Buy (on CL). After market close on August 21, Samsung Electronics (SEC) announced its FY2026 shareholder return plan, outlining an estimated remaining return pool of W90tn to W110tn. We highlight key takeaways from the announcement, and raise our 2026E-2028E EPS estimates by 1%-11% to reflect our latest cash flow assumptions and dividends and buyback/cancellation estimates. Our ROE estimates for 2026E/2027E/2028E go up to 53%/52%/43%. With the stock trading at 1.7X 2027E P/B and 1.2X 2028E P/B with a 40-50% ROE, we believe the risk/reward is attractive, and believe the substantial shareholder returns on a more consistent basis will help drive higher valuation multiples. Reiterate Buy (on Conviction List). Giuni Lee

Also see: Korea Technology: Korea…