Gold

30 July 2026, 15:17 UTC Chief Investment Office GWM Investment Research

Second-quarter demand and supply trends: What to watch next CIO View: Gold Dominic Schnider, CFA, CAIA, Strategist, UBS Switzerland AG Giovanni Staunovo, Strategist, UBS Switzerland AG

Gold (USD/oz) • World Gold Council data for the second quarter point to softer Forecasts Spot demand in key areas on the investment and jewelry side, and slightly 30 Jul 26 4,077 higher mine supply. Sep 26 4,400 • These supply and demand trends were in line with market 4,600 Dec 26 expectations and consistent with price weakness in recent months. Hence, gold prices have not really moved on the back of the report. Mar 27 5,000 Jun 27 5,200 • If the Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged, investment demand could recover. Sustained central-bank demand would further improve Bloomberg, UBS; Note: Forecasts refer to end of period. the price outlook for gold into year-end. Gold prices managed to stabilize Values in USD/oz, daily data

The World Gold Council’s (WGC) latest Gold Demand Trends report points to stable total demand but weaker demand in key areas, like on the investment and jewelry side. In contrast, central bank and over-the-counter gold demand were both strong in 2Q.

Bar-and-coin demand came in at 307 metric tons in the second quarter, considerably lower than during the previous two quarters (4Q25, 1Q26), when bar and gold demand was above 400 metric tons, supported by Fed rate cuts and USD debasement concerns. Due to the outflows in ETF holdings last quarter, investment demand excluding over-the-counter activity came in at 262 metric tons versus 487 metric tons in the second quarter last year. In an unusual move, the WGC revised central bank Source: Bloomberg, UBS, as of July 2026 demand during the first quarter of this year substantially lower to 57 metric tons from an initial estimate of 244 metric tons. That said, 2Q numbers for central bank purchases came in at a very solid 289 tons. When averaging the 1H purchases, at around 345 tons, we get an annualized run rate of 700 tons. This is below our full-year estimate of 750-1000 tons for 2026. For now, we stick with our estimates in light of the improvement seen in 2Q.

First-quarter mine supply was revised up to 901 metric tons from 885 metric tons in the previous report, while second-quarter mine supply was estimated at 966 metric tons, compared with 948 metric tons in the same quarter last year. Surprisingly, recycled gold supply moderated to 326 metric tons, from 374 metric tons in the first quarter and 347 metric tons in the second quarter of 2025. Historically, high gold prices have supported scrap supply, but this is likely linked to gold prices rising during global economic recessions, in contrast to last year when other factors supported gold.

In our view, the latest supply-and-demand data are consistent with recent pressure on gold prices. As we previously noted, sustained investment

This report has been prepared by UBS Switzerland AG. Please see important disclaimers and disclosures that begin on page 3.

demand and robust central bank purchases are essential for gold prices Supply and demand overview for key to remain above USD 4,000/oz. And here the focus, particularly for areas investment demand, remains on US monetary policy and the direction of Values in metric tons US interest rates. With the market still pricing Fed rate hikes this year, price risks remain skewed to the downside in the near term, leaving room for gold to pull back toward USD 3,850/oz. However, we do not believe investors should become too negative on the metal either, especially over the next 12 months.

If the Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged rather than raising them, or cuts rates early next year as we expect, investment demand would likely recover. Gold tends to benefit from lower real yields, as markets price in less monetary tightening and greater inflation risks. Such a backdrop should weigh on the US dollar as well, with USD diversification flows favoring gold (demand) as a traditional safe-haven asset. If second-quarter central bank demand can be sustained close to 300 tons per quarter, conditions could Source: World Gold…