GS Blekos Marketcolour HF Trend Monitor 21 Aug 2026

GS Blekos - Marketcolour HF Trend Monitor 21 Aug 2026 Blekos · Goldman Sachs · Vice President, FICC & Equities Fri 21 Aug 2026, 2:42am ET

US equities were lower on Thursday, finishing near worst levels: SPX -87bps to 7641 (9/11 sectors -ve, Cons disc -1.60%, Mats + 0.2%, VIX +7% to 16), NDX -72bps to 29,213, RTY -134bps to 2992. High Beta Momo (GSPRHIMO, +9bps) was stable following recent weakness. In singles, WMT -9.2% ended firmly lower following a softer than expected EPS print. Europe now down 7d in a row (SXXP -10bps, SX5E -40bps, longest losing streak since September 2023 but only 1.5% below ATH). EU Luxury (GSXELUXG –1.6%) our worst thematic on the day, LVMH (MC FP -2.8%) the single biggest SXXP drag.

Interesting: US Government debt has eclipsed $40 trillion. Net interest payments on the US national debt have officially surpassed national defence spending (USD1100bn vs USD950bn).

Hedge Fund Trend Monitor: US equity long/short hedge funds have returned +10% YTD through August 19th. Hedge funds have cut gross and net leverage sharply from Q2 record highs, but exposures remain elevated relative to longer histories. The mega-cap tech companies remain the most popular hedge fund long positions. Hedge fund net tilts in Health Care, Financials, and Energy register at or near 10-year highs. Top Holdings: Amzn, Nvidia, Msft, GOOGL, TSMC, Meta, Micron, Apple, Visa, Broadcom... Chart on hdgs below.

Luxury: In July, Swiss watch exports increased by +9.6% YoY (post +11.2% YoY in June) vs. +6.9% in July 2025. The key takeaways from the July release remain the continued volatility in import numbers for Mainland China and Hong Kong, and for the US, although induced by tariffs (and overall -7% YTD). We note exports to Mainland China decreased -18.5% in July, following -7% in Q2, while HK was barely positive at +0.5% in July, following +8% in Q2.

Rockwool (BUY / PT DKK 235 / 10% Upside): Share price reaction overdone. Overall we revise FY26/27/28E EPS by +1%/0%/-1% reflecting topline upgrades offset by lower margins.

Sandoz (BUY / PT CHF80 / 10% Upside): We see scope for Sandoz to guide to a mid to high single-digit percent net sales CAGR (at constant currency) across 2026-30E, and a Core EBITDA margin reaching 26- 28%, implying mid single-digit upgrades to us/consensus to both the top and bottom-line at the mid-point.

WMT: Walmart is well positioned to continue driving solid earnings growth in 2026, supported by market share gains given its compelling proposition for value and convenience, while its profitability profile should also continue to improve. We reiterate our Buy rating on Walmart with a lower price target of $130. Source: Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities.