GS Contessa US Equities Color MO MELT 19 Aug 2026

GS Contessa - US Equities Color MO' MELT 19 Aug 2026 Contessa · Goldman Sachs · Vice President, FICC & Equities · Mike Washington, MD Wed 19 Aug 2026, 5:18pm ET

S&P +21bps closing @ 7,707 w/ a MOC of $1.1bn to SELL. NDX -22bps @ 29,426, R2K +43bps 3,030, and Dow +22bps @ 53,463. 16.907bn shares traded across all US equity exchanges vs ytd daily avg of 19.110bn shares. VIX -612bps @ 14.89, WTI Crude +81bps @ $85.63, US 10YR -0.065bps @ 4.6387%, gold +397bps @ 4,506, dxy -87bps @ 989.79 and Bitcoin +640bps @ $68,681.

Index down another ~20bps today but momentum drawdowns under the hood remain violent (GS TMT Mo' Pair down ~17% in 2-days, led by semis) against a 'calm' SPX & VIX backdrop today. As of 1pm today, we estimated Systematic L/S managers down 1.4% (>3 SD on 3 years), worst day in more than 2 years. Losses spread across all regions with momentum alone contributing 60bps to the underperformance though still up 1.7% for the month. Fundamental L/S managers down 0.7% but still up 0.8% for the month.

Elsewhere, crypto rallied following an SEC proposal yesterday called "Regulation Crypto Assets" which seeks to create exemptions for digital asset investment contracts coupled with President Trump remarks this afternoon. Consumer acted very well, due to macro as opposed to anything new from EPS or updates.

Rates move continues to garner attention post treasury announcement this AM: U.S. TREASURY INCREASING SIZE OF LIQUIDITY SUPPORT BUYBACK OPERATIONS FOR LONGER-DATED NOMINAL COUPON SECURITIES. Ultimately, the drivers of higher yields at the long end have been macro related—capex, productivity and real risk premium plus persistent macro supply shocks—so while this may relieve some of the worries about excessive long-end issuance, we don't this addresses the fundamental issues driving the curve steepening/cheapening in long end. GIR

DERIVS: Quieter index-level day with a very different story under the hood. VIX settlement was a non- event with a 15.29 print. SPX fixed strike vols were sold once again particularly in gamma tenors. Skew relaxed across the curve but not quite back to the flat levels we saw late last week. NDX vol was underperforming the SPX with the spot underperformance on the day but ultimately closed the session at similar levels. In the singles/thematic space, the market saw a massive chase for upside in gold and crypto with today's spot moves. IBIT saw record call volumes today at almost 1.6mm contracts (vs 535k puts). The chase was even more pronounced relative to calls in GLD with more than 4x calls traded versus puts. Flows wise, we saw buyers of GLD upside this morning in outright and spread format. On the back of the GLD and IBIT moves today, the desk flagged worst of SPX/GLD/IBIT calls as an attractive way to capture upside with a significant correlation discount. The S&P implied move through tomorrow is 0.43%. (TY Gail Hafif)

Mutual Fundamentals hot off the GS press

41% of large-cap mutual funds are outperforming their benchmarks YTD compared with the historical average of 37%. Mutual fund cash balances sit near historical lows. Following a brief increase around the

start of the US-Iran war, mutual fund cash balances stood at 1.2% of assets at the end of June. Cash balances reached a low of 1.1% in December 2025.

New MF Overweights (GSTHMFOW): UNH, APH, SPCX, VIK, COF, UPS, BMY, LH, ANET, SNX, PGR, MSI, FANG

New MF Underweights (GSTHMFUW): MRVL, LRCX, FTNT, QCOM, CRWD, KLAC, AFL