GS Kaplan Global Equities Call 21 Aug 2026

GS Kaplan - Global Equities Call 21 Aug 2026 Kaplan · Goldman Sachs · Vice President, FICC & Equities Fri 21 Aug 2026, 7:13 AM ET

Here's what we're focused on this morning: US equities rebounding (SPX futures +30bps // NDX +55bps // RTY +65bps) albeit on another quiet macro morning with no further updates from US/Iran outside of reports Bessent is set to release details of the economic pressure campaign on Monday (WTI +15bps @ $87.00). Otherwise, Samsung said it expects to return as much as $80bn to shareholders this year and AVGO (+1.3% pre-mkt) is said to be in talks to raise more than $60bn in debt for an AI Chip financing deal (bbg). Bitcoin is up +23% WTD for its best weekly performance since March '23. Looking ahead to next week, we are watching Bessent's Iran press conference on Monday, US PCE Wednesday, CRM + NVDA EPS Wednesday, MRVL + WDAY EPS Thursday, and Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole Keynote on Friday.

On the calendar for today: Macro: US August S&P Global PMIs @ 9:45 AM, Eurozone August Consumer Confidence @ 10 AM / Micro: EPS Pre: BJ, UI, NUVL

Privo on Risk: It has been a weird week and the cross asset picture has a definite stagflation smell (see below) to it… oil +7%, long rates still near the highs, gold up roughly 3.5% on the week and the dollar weaker. More importantly, Treasury has effectively told you the back end matters enough that they are prepared to lean against it. The question remains whether markets can continuously absorb sovereign issuance plus the extraordinary amount of corporate financing coming from the AI buildout. Political friction around data centers is building and increasingly bipartisan which could be a genuine constraint on a capex cycle. On Jackson Hole I genuinely don't know what "good" guidance from Warsh looks like. Dovish helps the front end but risks the long end/inflation expectations; hawkish restores some credibility but tightens conditions into a consumer that may already be slowing. No painless answer...plus how do you give any signal at all if you refuse to give forward guidance? Bottom line: Easy after a week like this to drag the narrative somewhere very negative… I'm still a long way from there. AI demand/capex is still growing (1-1.5trn for next year), memory trades well, EM trades well and copper is bouncing. But the macro setup is clearly less friendly… oil, rates and Treasury intervention all matter more, while Walmart makes the micro a little less clean. Respect the risks/gross… don't abandon the core view (long nominal assets ie equities + gold/avoid duration). Watching flash PMIs.

HEDGE FUND TREND MONITOR: Down but not out

Hedge fund performance, leverage, and the most popular long positions have swung sharply with the AI trade during the last few months. Hedge funds delivered strong Q2 gains as popular AI stocks led the market higher and hedge fund crowding climbed to a record. Funds then struggled as AI momentum unwound in July. Our Hedge Fund VIP list of the most popular long positions suffered its worst 1-month underperformance vs. the S&P 500 in more than 20 years of history, and July marked one of the sharpest

hedge fund de-grossing episodes of the past decade. Despite the volatility, US equity long/short hedge funds have returned 10% through mid-August. Hedge fund gross leverage, net leverage, and AI exposure have each declined from their Q2 highs but still rank above longer-term averages.

Hedge funds entered last quarter "all in on AI" but began to diversify within and beyond the theme even during the Q2 rally. Portfolio turnover last quarter was the highest since 2021 and within Info Tech was the highest since 2011. Tech accounted for 14 of the 20 Rising Stars with the largest increases in hedge fund popularity last quarter. SNOW and STX joined the VIP list, as did SPCX. At the same time, funds trimmed positions in a number of AI stocks, including many semiconductors and most of the mega-caps. AMZN and MSFT were exceptions where funds added on net. Outside of AI, funds added to Health Care and lifted net tilts in Financials and Energy to the highest levels in over a decade.

PERFORMANCE: The volatility of hedge fund portfolios during the last few months has…