GS McGeoch GS Materials August 25 Copper positioning VALE technicals 25 Aug 2026

GS McGeoch - GS Materials August 25 Copper positioning VALE technicals 25 Aug 2026 McGeoch · Goldman Sachs · Vice President, FICC & Equities Tue 25 Aug 2026, 3:25 AM ET

DXY 99.11 CNH 6.72 10YR 4.70 Gold 4637 Copper 14,241 Oil 91.32

Obv a pretty quiet week in single stock for us. BHP continues to make ATH. RIO trades same direction, the news in S32 was a reserve upgrade at Sierra Gorda (+61%) to 1.1mt, note GS model it at 1.5mt already (trades inline with BHP/RIO), readthrough to KGHM also, with the prev announced 4th grinding line expected to deliver +30% copper prodn from 2031. New mgmt, new targets, all a healthy reset and with results this week the mkt is paying particular attention. Some commodity interest below in more detail, away from that….. Iron ore small drift lower, recall yday I mentioned it was unwind on the Met Coal rally (selling Met to buy back shorts in Fe), today as coal −1.5% onshore, the drift is back in Iron Ore. For choice we still sell it towards the lower end of range <$95…. Although was flagged yesterday VALE.US is sitting right on the 100day, take a quick pass at the rel below, be interested to see how people thinking about it, has had a range of downgrades and clearly if viewed as the Iron Ore name of the 3 with both BHP and RIO at length to outline they are <50% iron ore…looking at a few other charts this am, we will be lead by Gold and Copper again today. The ask did pickup yesterday, people coming back, personally I had a c.50% increase in those who read my daily yesterday v Friday (I thought Friday was more interesting, both leading with gold though)….see a few interesting charts on positioning towards bottom.

Copper – the change in stocks was expressed in spreads more than flat price. We saw Sept/Dec go from $84 to $109 on the news and EOD around $125. Borrowing spreads and back end bid. Just getting back to where we were around 1month ago before we started to see some deliveries. Personally there is more than one out there asking what happens if we “stock out”. I don’t know, only to say “demand driven moves are linear and Supply drive moves are exponential”, the examples in recent years, Cocoa (6x), EUR Gas (20x), even US steel post covid (4x), we are not talking >1x, but we are talking ATH being reposted rapidly, kind of like the shape we saw in Ali through Q2 would be the best analogy. I wont stop saying this untill i hear someone, anyone (bueller) also talking about it, the GLEN deal last week mattered and in this context it matters more….recall the language in the OneExim release “pre-emptive move” from an “economic-security” perspective. The big ask is where can the space go? All I know if back in 4Q25/1Q26 we saw the preferred names SCCO/ANTO trade 15/12x EV/EBITDA. The mkt ignored any operational bumps, they just wanted to own the top tier names. As we walk into the next phase that is no different, the only one is the likes of FCX/AAL/TECK/GLEN and even FM feels close, are on the list.

Weekly Update talking to traders across the floor – Appetite to sell oil stepped up on Friday, the vol compression notable with the conviction around direction lower. Products stay where they are, tight and no change expected. Gas is all about Qatar flows, storage levels and weather runs, have not seen demand destruction at this time, but we are on the level its expected to realise. Copper tightness, can focus shift

from Gold across, stock draws matter and they are significant. Ali roundtripped, stays backwardated (what a time to have had your eyes closed, liquidity end of last week was low)….Gold is most interesting (all about Jackson hole), noting the commodity trades with the same vol as Silver despite the implied priced at 2x, ie the interest really is in Gold firstly, these others should follow. Tightness in availability impacting the forwards and started to see interest in PGM’s again. …from me its about as bullish as I can recall – debasement. Rotation (out of tech), supply tightness, specs leaning in, seasonality…results done, China demand stimulus ask (see daily yday)…..all rather bullish and the short leg in Oil feels like it gives you some good rope….. I also read an “un-audited” stat yday that…