GS McGeoch Materials 14Aug2026

GS Materials — Gold selling, Copper tightness, ANTO downgrade, RWE upside, BHP James McGeoch · Goldman Sachs · Vice President, FICC & Equities Fri 14 Aug 2026, 3:34am ET

Tape: DXY 99.82 · CNH 6.74 · 10YR 4.65 · Gold 4335 · Copper 14,097 · Oil 87.90.

Gold — ex near-term catalyst? The Chinese have clearly taken profit on the spec side. Interesting is the West appears to be playing catch-up. This trade has the market’s attention, so now we get through the hottest/slowest part of summer and see how the market re-engages towards month-end. Recall the commodity trading team discussion: how do I express oil downside at $90 and gold upside from $4300.

Copper still has eyes. It is really reconciling what the biggest driver is. Sure there is the omnipresent threat of tariffs, however this has taken a backseat to the supply-side story. Robert Friedland brought The Copper Residual back to the top of the feed — during times of abundance markets allocate metal flow; during times of scarcity, governments are the allocator. Demand-driven moves are linear; supply-driven ones are asymmetric. The market in oil can trade through the barrel; in copper you can only trade the back end. Chinese smelter rates are falling towards 70% (concentrate and scrap availability down). The economic growth plan is heavily copper-dependent (energy transition, ESS, EV, solar, AI, DC, humanoids — all equal power, and copper enables that distribution at scale). If the US keeps pulling these units onshore, China needs to wrestle power, and that is leveraging smelter production, which is all about concentrate.

Latest print was ANTO yesterday: the market loses c.35kt at the midpoint. Consensus has mine supply growth around 0% in 2027, despite YTD running more than 200bps below that. It is easy for everyone to say tariffs — so much in the price I cannot chase. The concentrate availability issue is harder to track; just watch TCs. Reports of −$200 TC, and last week a trader said “scarcity pricing” and −$270/t. For as long as we thought they can never go to zero, do we still think they cannot double from here? I don’t. A US scrap export ban is just as big a signal as a 15% tariff. So unless you think miners are about to dramatically change the supply side, or you think the world is giving up on electrification, copper goes higher. GSXGCOPP Index.

ANTOFAGASTA — post yesterday’s result. It has always been a case of guide optimistically and then trim. Copper production has now averaged c.650kt since 2022. Can they realistically achieve the big headline target of +30% (v 2024) to 850kt by 2029? This is what the market gave them a premium multiple for. As Matt outlines, cash costs before by-product credits increased 23% YoY (+$0.53/lb) to $2.85/lb. “In our view, investors are increasingly likely to focus on these underlying costs rather than headline net cash costs, particularly if gold/moly prices moderate from current elevated levels, with the quality of recent cost performance arguably less encouraging than the headline numbers imply.” GIR has reduced the 2027–28 production forecast by 4%/3% to 672kt/792kt and sees growing risk that market expectations for next year move lower over time. GIR lower the 12m PT by 5% to £42/sh (from £44/sh) on higher net debt and lower EBITDA. The 12m PT is set at a 25/75 blend of 1.3x NAV and EV/EBITDA (NTM) with an 8.5x target multiple (unchanged).

RWE.GY — GIR concluded that stronger-than-anticipated returns in US renewables, upside to domestic FlexGen, and the ROE at Amprion converging to peers, could push RWE’s 2031 EPS target to c.€5.50 from the current €4.55, a +20% boost. During the H1 analyst call, management disclosed further optionalities (DC deals, capacity auctions, gas plant development, US LNG deals), which could potentially lift 2031 EPS above €6.00.

BRE.AU — trading halt, no idea why. Capital raise? A left-field stab: some thinking around the resource statement, production target (in the scoping study) based off a forecast larger than the JORC resource. In Brazil, in Minas Gerais, NdPr, TD/PY and very good grade (ie equal to best in world).

BHP — last one to report (Monday night after market, 17/8), hence sitting front of mind.…