GS Peter Callahan Tech SPOT PLTR ON TKO

NDX Futures higher to start (NDX Fut +110 bps) against what is starting to look/feel like a ‘V-shaped’ recovery for Tech (NDX Futures now up ~7% in just 4 sessions) amidst an arguably (much?) improved backdrop for Tech -- think: cleaner positioning [see latest from GS PB], improved technicals [e.g. Korea leveraged ETF AUM has declined >50% from the peak to US$25bn today], tidier valuations [NDX fwd P/E at >10% discount to its 5 year avg] and strong(er) fundamentals / visibility [e.g improved ROIC sentiments] …. would note, a bunch of investor questions yday on the “feel” out there – e.g. squeezy? hated rally? signs of re-risking? catalysts? Semis vs Hyperscalers? chase or technical bounce? …

.. outside of earnings overnight (see below), focus on: 1) the move in Optical names (LITE +12%, CIEN +9%, GLW +7%) following reports of a potential FCC led bar of imports of new Chinese optical transceivers, 2) the pre-market reversion in US Hyperscalers this morning (MSFT and AMZN both closed with 14-day RSIs > 70 yesterday – aka ‘overbought’) and/or how to think about Semis vs Hyperscalers – can both work? .. and .. 3) all eyes will be on: ALAB, AMD, ANET, BKNG, PINS, SPCX after the close ..

Top inbounds yday .. lag in Analog / Power Semis (MPWR -5%, TXN -3%, ADI -2%)?? .. HDDs vs NAND / DRAM spread lately? preferences? .. bounce in META (up 10% in 2- days) and RDDT (now ~15% above Friday’s lows) .. size of move in Hyperscalers = sustainable? .. strength in Software (all MSFT or sentiment change?) … set-ups this week (DASH, OTAs, DDOG, ANET most topical) ..

Earnings .. pre-market inbounds: .. 1) PLTR: any pushback? Squeeze v Real? Where can this go!? .. 2) SPOT: what is the biggest ‘negative’ people are pointing to? or just lack of ‘upside’?.. 3) ON: can this work from here or investors fade / prefer others in Analog/MCU semis? .. 4) TKO can this get its groove back? ..

PLTR +15% .. woah … GIR ’27 revenue estimates go up ~11% overnight (to ~$12.87bn in revenues) against the backdrop of (somewhat) more measured sentiment re: potential ‘competition’ (see SI near two year highs or ~80mn shares short, per bbg) with a big beat/raise that saw 2Q US Commercial accelerating ~16 pts y/y to 149% y/y with US Comms RDV of $6.238 bn or +27% q/q (vs +12% q/q last qtr) … and .. of note, CEO Alex Karp introduced his goal of driving Palantir's US business (Commercial and Government) to grow at or above current growth rates for the next 18 months. GIR believe the key to unlocking stock outperformance post a YTD pullback (stock was down ~30% YTD into earnings) will be Palantir's ability to capture incremental AI business at enterprises that are diversifying their model strategies toward a balance of SLMs, open

source/weight, and frontier models, on top of Palantir's already-proven ability to expand within existing customers [gir take].

SPOT -6% on broadly ‘solid’ (albeit, ‘inline-ish’ looking results / 3Q guide) – bunch of early inbounds re: pushbacks or what was actually wrong (or, is this just about lack of ‘upside’?) … conf call @ 8am ET (ongoing) .… 2Q headline Revs +15% y/y cc with GMs beat by ~30 bps or 33.4% vs cons 33.1% .. . OI beats by ~2.5% or €655M vs cons €638.4M . .Premium Subs beat by ~1mn or 300mn (+7mn q/q) vs cons ~299mn, balanced by a more a slight miss on Total MAUs (~777mn vs cons ~778mn) … 3Q Total MAUs guided 788mn (+11mn q/q) vs cons ~393mn, albeit with inline Premium Subs guide of +5mn q/q (~305mn) .. GMs guided 32.9% (down ~50 bps q/q) and OI guided €670 mn vs cons €678mm (gir take)

TKO +1% .. better than feared print against the budding investor angst into print re: mix / expenses and a raise to FY guidance (due to World Cup demand trends + Freedom 25 upshot on Partnership revs), all against the backdrop of TKO trading at/near its 2 year low multiple into earnings (~16x fwd EV/EBITDA) … puts-and-takes from earnings last night via Stephen/GIR (link) :

 Key positives included: 1) strong momentum in UFC engagement & positive data points coming out of UFC Freedom 250, 2) World Cup now expected to exceed prior estimates for $75M in Adjusted EBITDA for the full year, 3) solid forward indicators for IMG suggest better than expected…