GS Quinn Gold Futures Record 3 Weeks of Buying 23 Aug 2026

GS Quinn - Gold Futures Record 3 Weeks of Buying 23 Aug 2026 Robert Quinn · Goldman Sachs · Managing Director, FICC & Equities Sun 23 Aug 2026, 6:20am ET

Over the past 3 weeks, speculators purchased a record amount of Gold futures in nominal terms per Commitment of Traders (COT). All categories participated. At first glance, macroeconomic factors, which also steepened the US yield curve, seemingly catalyzed the broad support. That said, Gold bulls kept adding as recent Treasury actions forced a curve retracement. This creates some risk of tactical unwinds should Chairman Warsh also express discomfort with recent market developments.

• Over the past 3 weeks, speculators purchased a record amount of Gold futures in nominal terms per Commitment of Traders (COT). Managed Money, Other, and Non-Reportable bought +$22.2bn from July 28th – August 18th, representing a 10+ year notional max. Long augmentation (+$13.6bn) and short covering (+$8.6bn) contributed. Resultant net length registered at 93% on a 2 year lookback.

• All categories participated: Managed Money +$10.9bn, Other +$8.5bn, Non-Reportable +$2.8bn.

• At first glance, macroeconomic factors, which also steepened the US yield curve, seemingly catalyzed the broad support. Investors lowered the potential for multiple rate hikes in 2026 post the incrementally dovish July Fed meeting plus benign inflation and job readings. Meanwhile, long-dated rates charged higher due to cyclical resilience, AI capex, growth optimism, ongoing fiscal pressures, and global spillovers. Thus for Managed Money and Other, gross long changes on either a 1 or 2 week basis became positively correlated with US 2s30s.

• That said, Gold bulls kept adding as recent Treasury actions forced a curve retracement. Over August 18th – 21st, Gold jumped +5.9% and US 2s30s fell -8bps after the Treasury announced increases of 10-to- 30y buyback operations. Gold aggregate open interest rose each session for a cumulative +$8.9bn. GS Futures Strategists' CTA model exhibited continued buying. Moreover, Gold 3 month implied volatility richened and normalized 25 delta put-call skew cheapened to a 5 month low. Therefore longs initiated via outright futures and calls.

• This creates some risk of tactical unwinds should Chairman Warsh also express discomfort with recent market developments. At the July Fed meeting, Warsh had not yet decided whether his keynote speech at Jackson Hole would be "big-picture" or a more traditional preview for policy into year-end. Some Fed pundits, including former officials, believe he must restore inflation fighting credibility.

Gold Managed Money, Other, and Non-Reportable Net Length vs Price

Source: GS GBM, CFTC as of August 18th.

Gold Managed Money Gross Longs vs US 2s30s