GS Soria Chart of the Day Correlation Break AI vs SPXXAI 19 Aug 2026

GS Soria - Chart of the Day Correlation Break: AI vs SPXXAI 19 Aug 2026 Soria · Goldman Sachs · Vice President, FICC & Equities Wed 19 Aug 2026, 3:29pm ET

This year has been marked by historically low correlation across US Equities with pairwise correlation across SPX names at multi year lows.

What has been striking more recently is the bifurcation between the AI and non-AI trade, illustrated by the lowest and most negative correlation on record between our GS Broad AI basket (GSTMTAIP) and SPXXAI Index. The basket and the index have only traded in the same direction 1/3rd of the time in the last 3 months (vs ~2/3rd historical average).

Dispersion is likely to continue (see our weekly reflections note for implementations) and factor vol continues to be extremely elevated (more on momentum here). Following the strong rally in the broadening out trade we are seeing demand for downside protection heading into historically thin end-of- summer liquidity and favor targeted hedges over broad index protection. Preferred expressions include SPXXAI Index (Oct 96%/89% put spread costs 1.10%, 18d), Small Caps ex AI (GSXUR2XX) for a small cap tilt with limited AI beta, Momentum (GSPUMOMO) for factor-specific downside protection, and Momentum ex AI (GSPUMOXX) for investors concerned about momentum crowding beyond the AI complex.

Pairwise correlation across SPX names is at multi year lows.

Following the strong rally SPXXAI is now at ATH and is right below technically overbought levels

SPXXAI is lower vol than R2K and can provide a cheaper and more targeted hedge to a non-AI portfolio