GS Wijaya Energy Natural Resources and Utilities Preview Monday Thoughts 24 Aug 2026

GS Wijaya - Energy Natural Resources and Utilities Preview Monday Thoughts 24 Aug 2026 Adam Wijaya · Goldman Sachs · FICC & Equities / Energy, Natural Resources and Utilities Mon 24 Aug 2026

Refining – shift? Products continue to march higher (think NY diesel +7% and GC Diesel +5% over the last month), there have been little signs of demand destruction, maintenance has been pushed out (ie keep an eye on unplanned downtime), and flows are largely muted. Refining equities for the most part have followed suit with the bullish commods narrative – with our GS Refining basket +15% over the 1m. Refining has felt more binary over the last 6 months from the dedicated community (relative upside, crowding) – though more recently we would argue there has been a shift in sentiment. One question we have been asking – 'even if Hormuz opened tomorrow, where could there be the most scar tissue?'. and refining tends to stick out in the conversations. Would also say we are past the point of 'just owning the group for upside to cracks', with specialist conversations becoming more idiosyncratic in nature – and this has been reflected in the most asked about names on the desk over the last week (MPC, DK, PSX, DINO). Of the four mentioned here – PSX sticks out – and the story continues to revolve around the deleveraging path and hitting net debt target ahead of schedule (have historically seen equities perform relatively strong on back of this). Stock has lagged the broader complex YTD, and the simple answer is 'lack of crack beta'.

CAD – pulse check. Where are we on recent positioning? More owned: CVE, CNQ, KEY, PPL. Less owned: SU, IMO, TRP, ENB. Debated (can be both): SU, SOBO, TRP. Double clicking on a few of the names below – let us know where you agree / disagree. SU – view here is enough air has come out of the stock relative to peers (take a look at price action since EPS vs CVE and CNQ) following mgmt updates and miss vs buyside expectations on Downstream. Stock trades at a 9% FCF on 2027 GS estimates and can still argue 2H Street expectations are too low for Downstream ops. SOBO – post quarter inbounds have been more cautious – Prairie Connector questions mostly revolving around key next steps (permitting, scope, commercial demand). The stock has outperformed ENB, KEY and PPL over the last month – though would think most of the recent price action (+3% over last five days) can be attributed to recent comments on Keystone XL pipeline revival. CAD egress continues to be topical – sentiment remains constructive here – and have seen more questions on exposure to greenfield vs existing production profiles.

Gold. Title of the note from Rob Quinn over the weekend should explain most of the price action / sentiment in conversations: 'Record 3 Weeks of Buying'. (A) Over the past 3 weeks, speculators purchased a record amount of Gold futures in nominal terms per Commitment of Traders (COT). Managed Money, Other, and Non-Reportable bought +$22.2bn from July 28th – August 18th, representing a 10+ year notional max. Long augmentation (+$13.6bn) and short covering (+$8.6bn) contributed. Resultant net length registered at 93% on a 2 year lookback. (B) Gold bulls kept adding as recent Treasury actions

forced a curve retracement. Over August 18th – 21st, Gold jumped +5.9% and US 2s30s fell –8bps after the Treasury announced increases of 10-to-30y buyback operations. Gold aggregate open interest rose each session for a cumulative +$8.9bn. GS Futures Strategists' CTA model exhibited continued buying. (C) This creates some risk of tactical unwinds should Chairman Warsh also express discomfort with recent market developments. At the July Fed meeting, Warsh had not yet decided whether his keynote speech at Jackson Hole would be "big-picture" or a more traditional preview for policy into year-end. Some Fed pundits, including former officials, believe he must restore inflation fighting credibility.