International market pulse aug2026

Market Pulse Macro Views Chart of the Month: AI Rotations Growth: Globally we expect GDP growth to slow in 2026 amid lingering headwinds from the rise in energy prices. In the US, we 200 AI Infrastructure TMT AI Basket see growth near 2% with the AI boom supporting business S&P 500 Mag 7 investment and contributing nearly 0.5pp to consumer spending 180 AI At Risk through equity wealth effects. We see AI-driven above trend

YTD Performance (Indexed to 100) growth in EMs as well, but below-trend growth in DMs ex-US. 160 Inflation: Core inflation has undershot in recent months and now stands at 2.1% in the G10 ex-US, despite energy prices 140 surging in March. In the US, we expect core inflation closer to 3% in Dec 2026 given the effects of tariffs, energy prices, and AI measurement issues, with it falling closer to 2% in 2027 as 120 those subside. Monetary Policy: The usual rationale for raising rates is to 100 prevent economic overheating by bringing aggregate demand into balance with supply. The challenge for central banks today is 80 that most inflation is supply driven and rate policy becomes a less effective tool. As such, we expect the Fed to hold for evidence of price passthrough and the BoE to watch the labor 60 market, while the ECB may still hike in September to guard Jan '26 Feb '26 Mar '26 Apr '26 May '26 Jun '26 Jul '26 inflation expectations.

Market Views Asset Class Forecasts Equities: From a top-down perspective, index performance has Current 3m 12m % ∆ to 12m been strong this year and global markets are within striking Equities distance of all-time highs. Under the surface, rapid rotations have challenged portfolio stability. AI has been at the epicenter, S&P 500 ($) 7,490 7,600 8,300 10.8 with trade-offs emerging between software vs hardware and STOXX Europe (€) hyperscalers vs infrastructure providers. Low correlation and MSCI Emerging Markets ($) 1,756 1,850 2,000 13.9 high dispersion markets are ideal conditions for alpha TOPIX (¥) 4,003 4,200 4,500 12.4 generation, in our view, with a preference for quality earnings Rates and balance sheets. 10-Year Treasury 4.7 4.4 4.3 -43 bp Credit: Significant AI capex requires a mix of financing, with 10-Year Bund 3.2 3.0 3.0 -18 bp hyperscaler issuance accounting for 16-23% of gross issuance in 10-Year JGB 2.8 2.5 2.4 -39 bp USD IG, HY, and leveraged loan markets YTD, and a growing Currencies share of non-USD and private markets as well. Technology Euro (€/$) spreads have widened, in part reflecting heavy supply, but credit Pound (£/$) fundamentals appear reasonable – particularly for the top of the capital stack. Yen ($/¥) Real Assets Currencies: The sharp increase in US rates and strong US equity performance has given legs to the dollar rally, even as Brent Crude Oil ($/bbl) geopolitical and energy risks have normalized. We expect divided London Gold ($/troy oz) 4,047 4,690 5,115 26.4 dollar performance to continue, with strength to be more pronounced against DM than EM currencies given strong EM equity performance and relatively higher yields.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (GIR), TOPIX, MSCI. As of August 3, 2026. “We/Our” refers to Goldman Sachs Asset Management. The macro and market views expressed may differ from those of GIR and other divisions of Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. See page 4 for additional disclosures. The economic and market forecasts presented herein are for informational purposes as of the date of this document. There can be no assurance that the forecasts will be achieved. Past performance does not predict future returns and does not guarantee future results, which may vary. FOR INSTITUTIONAL OR FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES USE ONLY – NOT FOR USE AND/OR DISTRIBUTION TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC

MARKET PULSE GOLDMAN SACHS ASSET MANAGEMENT 1

AI Job Apocalypse or Labor Transformation? Generative artificial intelligence may be a new technology, but disruption is not a new phenomenon. Similar to past periods of innovation, we believe that AI will increase productivity, change the way we work, and transform the labor market. There will likely be disruption, but we are already seeing potential across companies…