Japan Focus of the Week August Tokyo CPI

Economics Research 21 August 2026 | 5:28PM JST

Japan Focus of the Week: August Tokyo CPI

Focus Next Week Yuriko Tanaka | n We forecast the August Tokyo new core CPI (excludes fresh food and energy) at Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. +2.0% yoy, up +0.2 pp vs. July. There were price hikes for food and beverage, and Tomohiro Ota non-durable goods (such as cosmetics, paper products, and sanitary products) | on the back of soaring naphtha prices. While the continuing decline in rice prices Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.

will make a negative contribution, this will not offset the price rise. We forecast Akira Otani | the core CPI (excludes fresh food) at +1.8% yoy (+0.1 pp vs. July). Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.

This Week’s Data and Events n The first estimate of Q2 real GDP growth came in at +1.1% qoq annualized, maintaining positive growth for the third consecutive quarter, but it fell below the market forecast of +2.0%. Private consumption and capex declined, highlighting the weakness of private sector domestic demand. On the other hand, external demand made a large positive contribution due to a modest increase in exports and a sharp decline in imports driven by a crude oil shortage in April-May. n July export volume maintained positive growth for the fifth consecutive month at +5.2% yoy, and also rose +2.3% mom on a seasonally adjusted basis (our calculation). While the crude oil import unit price in yen terms remained high at +81% compared to February, crude oil import volume turned to an increase for the first time since March at +5.5% yoy. n The July national new core CPI (excludes fresh food and energy) came in at +1.9% yoy, accelerating from +1.7% in June, in line with the market forecast. The impact of soaring naphtha and memory chip prices led to price increases for some consumable and durable goods, pushing up the new core CPI, albeit slightly. The global core CPI (excludes food other than alcohol and energy) rose +1.4% yoy, a +0.2pp acceleration from June. The core CPI (excludes fresh food) also came in at +1.8%, a +0.2 pp acceleration from June, in line with the market forecast, due to an acceleration in electricity and gas charges.

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Goldman Sachs Japan Focus of the Week

Upcoming Economic Indicators and Events (August 24 - 28)

Upcoming Economic Indicators and Events JST Region Indicators and events GS Consensus Previous Aug. 24 JP 10-Year CX JGB Auction

Aug. 25 23:00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey (Aug) +7 +5 23:00 US New Home Sales (Jul) mom % -1.3% +1.6% 23:00 US Consumer Confidence (Aug) 90.2 90.8

Aug. 26 JP JGB Liquidity Supply Auction 8:50 JP Services Producers Price Index (Jul) yoy % +3.2%

21:30 US Personal Income (Jul) mom % +0.2% +0.2% Personal Spending (Jul) mom % +0.1% +0.3% Core PCE Price Index (Jul) mom % +0.2% +0.1% yoy % +3.3% +3.3% 21:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders (Jul) mom % +0.5% +0.7% Core Capital Goods Orders (Jul) mom % +2.0% 21:30 US Real GDP (Q2; Second) qoq ann % +1.5% +1.5%

Aug. 27 10:30 JP BOJ Deputy Governor Himino Speaks 21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims US Jackson Hole Fed Conference (Aug. 27 - 29)

Aug. 28 JP 2-Year JGB Auction 8:30 JP Tokyo Area CPI (Jul) Excl. fresh food (core CPI) yoy % +1.8% +1.7% +1.7% Excl. freshfood and energy (new-core CPI) yoy % +2.0% +2.0% +1.8% 8:30 JP Labor Market (Jul) Unemployment rate 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% Job offers to applicants ratio 1.19X 1.19X 1.18X 23:00 US U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug; Final) 51.0 5-10yr Inflation Expectations +3.3% US Jackson Hole Fed Conference (Aug. 27 - 29)

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg

n August Tokyo CPI: We forecast the August Tokyo new core CPI (excludes fresh food and energy) at +2.0% yoy, up +0.2 pp vs. July. In addition to broad-based price hikes for food and beverage items, price increases were also implemented for non-durable goods (such as cosmetics, paper products, and sanitary products) on the back of soaring naphtha prices, which likely pushed up the new core CPI. In addition, a price hike for…