JPM Commodity Market

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 15 September 2026

Commodity Market Positioning & Flows Energy markets’ exuberance drives record OI

• The estimated value of open interest across tracked commodity markets Global Commodities Research increased by 3% WoW ($57 billion) reaching $2.1 trillion, a new high since we Otar Dgebuadze, CFA began tracking the data in 2012 (Table 2, Figure 2). Similar to last week, energy n p .tiljfrseach d v u o m w T S 1 2 $ x b g k y y b tilfrseach d v u W % m T o n p k g 3

( was the dominant driver of the boost in overall open interest, fuelled by both a rise in energy prices and by $12 billion WoW of contract-based inflows across J.P. Morgan Securities plc

commodities sectors, also mainly into energy. On the macro front, our Natasha Kaneva economists have now marked the September central bank meetings as the start ( of a broad DM hiking cycle. With the ECB delivering a hike last week, they now JPMorgan Chase Bank NA expect it to be followed by moves from the Fed, BoJ, and RBA by month’s end. Gregory C. Shearer They expect the Fed to deliver a 25 bps hike at the September FOMC followed ( by another 25 bp hike in December (Global Data Watch: Can we get serious now?, Kasman et al, 12 September 2026). J.P. Morgan Securities plc Tracey Allen • The estimated value of net investor positioning aggregated across global ( commodity futures markets declined by 2.5% WoW (-$7 billion WoW) to $273 billion as of the latest data available (Table 1, Figure 3, Figure 4), largely driven tirseacn m N y d k g p o v o N $ b 7 y d m h g tlirseacn p v u k m L k u g d n o tjilrsaecp

J.P. Morgan Securities plc by energy markets. Net length in energy markets declined by $8.6 billion WoW, Ali A. Ibrahim as investors cut length across Dubai crude (-$12.8 billion WoW), though this ( was partially offset by an increase in ICE Gasoil ($1.6 billion WoW), ICE Brent ($1 billion WoW) and NYMEX WTI ($1 billion WoW). Investor positioning in J.P. Morgan Securities plc the agri markets declined by $1 billion WoW, driven by cotton (-$0.8 billion Aradhaya Makkar WoW) and coffee markets (-$0.9 billion WoW). Net length in precious metals J.P. Morgan India Private Limited increased by $2.9 billion WoW, led by gold, while net length in base metals declined by $0.6 billion WoW led by zinc (-$0.4 billion WoW). JPM QDS’s Ananyashree Gupta ( latest projections, as of September 14, indicate that positioning across commodity markets declined by $3.4 billion, driven by declines in gold (-$5 J.P. Morgan India Private Limited billion WoW), silver (-$1 billion WoW), copper (-$1.5 billion WoW), though partially offset by an increase in crude oil markets ($4.3 billion WoW). • The estimated value of open interest in energy markets increased by 7% WoW ($64 billion) to $975 billion (11 Sep, Figure 6). This was largely driven by an W tilfrseach d v u o p n g y k b 7 T m %

increase in prices across the energy complex (Brent +9%, WTI +10%, TTF +10.5% WoW) and further supported by net contract-based inflows of $8.6 billion WoW across all trader types. We note that US-Iran conflict has lasted longer than expected and the forward curve may be mispriced. Focusing on the next 16 months, we estimate that prices are about $6 too high at the front of the curve, but $10 too low at the back. However, three forces are keeping crude from spiking: rerouted and fungible flows, slower-than-expected inventory draws, and, most importantly, demand weakness amid stronger non-Middle East supply and a pre-war surplus. As a result, even a prolonged conflict could still imply only moderate Brent averages. The estimated value of open interest in natural gas markets increased by 9% over the week to $252 billion (11 Sep, Figure 13 T eh

). This was driven by an increase in prices across European and Asian W % tilfrseacdvuopngkby9m

benchmarks, further supported by net contract-based inflows of $4.5 billion over the week. We note that the Middle East escalation and the Strait of Hormuz re-closure have delayed Qatar’s LNG restart into winter, pushing TTF prices above expectations and raising winter volatility risks as Europe enters with record-low storage.These factors create strong…