JPM Market Intelligence | US Election Series Midterms:

JPMORGAN US MARKET INTELLIGENCE

2026 MIDTERM ELECTION SERIES – SEPTEMBER 16, 2026

• WHAT HAS CHANGED & INTERESTING ARTICLES

• VOTERS CONCERNS & TOP ISSUES

Dubravko tells us that on average, the sitting President’s party has lost ~27 House seats and ~3 Senate seats over the last 23 midterm cycles ( here). If that trend holds, Dems will take the House, and the GOP will hold the Senate. This aligns with betting markets which see a 48% chance that the GOP holds the Senate and an 86% chance that Dems take the

House. The economy and affordability screens as the most important issue, complicated by an unpopular conflict with Iran. Data is as of 9/15/2026.

For an expert view on the Midterms, please listen to the discussion between Bob Cusack (Exec. Editor, Washington Examiner), Mike Feroli (JPM Chief US Economist), and Samantha Azzarello (Head, JPM Content Strategy). Their webinar is available here.

WHAT HAS CHANGED & INTERESTING ARTICLES

• $500 OBAMACARE REFUNDS – Trump says that the Administration will $500 to ~1mm people who lost income-based subsidies to reduce healthcare costs. With the checks scheduled to be delivered in October. Politico reports that the checks will go to people who earning too much to qualify for an income-based subsidy (Politico). People who make more than 400% of the federal poverty level, or $60k+ are ineligible for the subsidy. Checks go to recipients of 30 states that do not have their own healthcare insurance exchange, going to 1mm of the ~19mm people who received coverage via the exchanges.

• $5,000 ‘GOP WON THE ELECTION’ CHECKS – This initiative requires Congressional approval, and estimated costs range from $1.2T - $1.35T. It is unclear if the Administration will pursuing passing a law to implement this initiative ahead of the elections.

• AI FEARS – (i) Data Centers are increasingly a campaign point, so watch the debate in Michigan and Texas; the debate focuses on both electricity pricing concerns and clean water usage. This voting issue was central in the Governor races for New Jersey and Virginia in 2025. (ii) Regulation is now a national issue after a plea from Anthropic’s Amodei, which was supported by Elon Musk and Sam Altman; though there has bene pushback from both China and Trump as being alarmist.

• SWITCHING SIDES? (i) Sen. Jon Fetterman (D-Pennsylvania) did a video appearance at the GOP Midterm Convention, speaking to his desire to work with the Trump Administration; (ii) Former Sen. Manchin (D-West Virginia) endorsed Sen. Collins (R-Maine) in her Senate race.