JPM US Market Intelligence Afternoon Briefing Oct 13

IDEAS & INSIGHTS – IN BRIEF • MKT UPDATES – Bullish macro read-through on US consumer from banks earnings; Reflagging our bullish view and monetization method; Comments from JPM Financial Specialist. • EARNINGS MACRO READ-THROUGH – We re-launched our macro earnings read-through section for this quarter; bullish view on consumer/credit from day 1 banks earnings. • DESK COMMENTARY – Desk commentary on healthcare and Tech. • US MKT INTEL VIEW – We return to our Tactically Bullish view and update the Monetization Menu.

AFTERNOON UPDATES (NEWS LINKS) • SPX -0.0%, NDX -0.3%, RTY -0.4%. WTI +126bps at $94.92, NatGas +470bps to $3.32, UK NatGas +289bps to £2.1576, Gold -33bps to $4,159, Silver -190bps to $59.12, 10Y @ 5.215%, and VIX @ 15.27. • US: Stocks closed modestly lower but were largely rangebound. Slightly more than half of the SPX stocks finished higher on the day, with decliners concentrating in Healthcare, Tech and Banks. The key drag stayed the AI complex as semis/memory extended the slide (SOXX was down 17bp, while DRAM -3.4%), while leadership rotated into hyperscalers (META +2.7%, ORCL +4.3%). Earnings season began with banks underperforming despite in-line earnings releases and quite positive economic outlooks; notable decliners include C -5.6% and WFC - 3.1%. Payments (MA and V) outperformed on the other hand as card volume growth from large- cap banks pointed to supportive backdrops. NY Fed president Williams’s remarks this afternoon was quite dovish: he sees no need for rate hike in 2027; we saw outperformance across multiple rate-sensitive sectors (Housing, Retail). FX/commodities were consistent with a cautious risk tone: the dollar eased, metals were softer, and WTI reversed early weakness to finish higher. All eyes on CPI tomorrow. • EU/UK: Major markets closed mixed to modestly lower after paring earlier gains. Thematically, Semis, Defence and Momentum Long were among the underperformers, while Software held up

better. 10y and 30y French yields fell 6bp and 4bp, respectively, while the rest of European bond yields were largely unchanged. Regionally, German CPI was unrevised; we will receive the revision of Eurozone CPI this Friday. UKX -0.1%, SX5E -0.6%, SXXP -0.1%, DAX -0.1%.

CATALYSTS TOMORROW (FULL WEEK CALENDAR) • US MACRO DATA TOMORROW: Mortgage Applications at 7am ET. CPI at 8.30am ET. Fed Releases Beige Book at 2pm ET. • US EARNINGS TOMORROW: BAC, BLK, FAST, MS, PGR, STT • GLOBAL MACRO DATA TOMORROW: (Japan) Core Machine Orders at 7.50pm ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

TODAY • MACRO READ-THROUGH FROM BANK EARNINGS – Day 1 of bank earnings told a consistent story: consumer spending and credit are still strong, and the labor market is what's holding both up. Card spending grew 10% year over year at JPM and 13% at C. Delinquencies and net credit losses are falling year over year at C and WFC. Corporate credit looks just as healthy, with C reporting low corporate non-accruals and net credit losses. WFC noted that higher prices are weighing on sentiment and that lower-income households are more sensitive to financing costs, inflation and fuel. Even so, that group is described as stable, not getting worse. Overall, the read-through supports a resilient US consumer view, and WFC summed up the bullish case best: “as long as the economy continues to grow and employment stays strong, that should continue. And we're just not seeing signs of that changing at this point." • Given today’s macro read-through, we would like top reflagging our thoughts on Consumer (published in the October 12th Morning Briefing) – The most recent Chase Spending data (here) suggested that total spending growth in September was up 6.6% YoY, an acceleration compared to August’s 5.3%. Spending growth was strong across all income cohorts. On a YoY basis (MTD in September vs. the same period in 2025), upper-, middle-, and lower-income spending were up 7.8%, 8.2%, and 6.6%, respectively. Consumer bank data (here) suggested that strong lower-income wage growth was supportive of this spending trend; lower-, middle-, and higher-income household wage growth was 4.7%, 3.8%, and 3.7% in August. Retail spending growth is being evenly…