Rio Tinto Ltd. (RIO)
- Copper Production & Guidance: In-line Q3 copper (205kt) driven by Oyu Tolgoi (+27% YoY), 2026 guidance maintained (800-870kt, $30-50/lb C1), critical for growth thesis and EBITDA +30% to 2030.
- Iron Ore Stockpile Gap: 7.9Mt stockpiles with 75-90 day mine-to-sale cycle (vs 2.5Mt Simandou production), creating material supply-demand imbalance and port capacity risk for 2027-2028.
- Lithium Production Miss: Q3 LCE production 24% below consensus (13k vs 17k), slower Sal de Vida ramp-up, directly threatening battery materials growth guidance (61-64kt full-year).
- Strategic Capital Allocation: $2bn YTD capital release ($5bn target by 2026), $5-10bn non-core divestments to de-leverage, 50% higher copper exploration spend ($692mn YTD) for future flows.