JPM US Market Intelligence | Morning Briefing

• MKT UPDATES – CPI, desk comments on ASML, Bullish macro read-through on US consumer from banks earnings; Reflagging our bullish view and monetization method.

• EARNINGS MACRO READ-THROUGH – We re-launched our macro earnings read- through section for this quarter; bullish view on consumer/credit from day 1 banks earnings.

• US MKT INTEL VIEW – we are Tactically Bullish and update the Monetization Menu

JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES

• SPX +0.2%, NDX -0.1%, RTY +0.3%. WTI +64bps at $94.74, NatGas +67bps to $3.31, UK NatGas -306bps to £2.1020, Gold -45bps to $4,142, Silver -104bps to $58.54, 10Y @ 5.194%, and VIX @ 15.22.

• US: Futs are modestly higher with RTY leading as bond yields are modestly lower into CPI. ASML's strong earnings earlier this morning drove the stock higher (+1.3%), but AI sentiment stays fragile; memory continues to underperform in the pre-market session (MU - 1.4% pre-market). Headlines regarding frontier IPOs and TSMC earnings tomorrow remain the biggest near-term drivers. Yields are down 1-2bp across the curve. USD unchanged and WTI +0.7% amid escalatory headlines overnight (Houthis hitting Aramco HQ and Iran's new SoH tactics); gold -0.4%, silver -1.1% to its lowest since Aug. Mag7 are broadly in the green. Macro focus this morning is the Sept CPI. For CPI, Feroli sees Headline MoM of 0.55% (3.6% YoY) and Core MoM of 0.18% (2.4% YoY); his views reflect a MoM increase in Headline but decrease in Core inflation.

• EU/UK: Major markets are higher led by SX5E and France; UK is lagging. European bond yields are 1-6bp lower this morning. 2y Gilts is down 5bp to 4.9%; 2y Bund is down 2bp; Lagarde telling France to fix its own debt keeps sovereign risk in view. Homebuilder and Luxury are among the best performing baskets; ASML drives the Semis basket higher on a margin-led Q3 beat and raising FY26 sales guide. UKX +0.4%, SX5E +0.7%, SXXP +0.6%, DAX +0.6%. CSI -1.4%, HSI -0.1%, NKY -0.0%, ASX -0.6%, KOSPI -0.4%.

• US MACRO DATA: Mortgage Applications at 7am ET. CPI at 8.30am ET. Fed Releases Beige Book at 2pm ET.

• US EARNINGS: BAC, BLK, FAST, MS, PGR, STT

• GLOBAL MACRO DATA: (Japan) Core Machine Orders at 7.50pm ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

After five straight down sessions in SOX (its longest losing streak since July), ASML's beat- and-raise drew a positive stock reaction but didn't restart the broader Semis / Memory trade (MU -1.2% pre-market; SK Hynix / TEL closed lower in Asia). The market is waiting into a catalyst-heavy stretch: chatter around a frontier model’s investor event today and TSMC's print / guide on Thursday. With tech front and center of the theme tape, watch for a possible squeeze post-CPI today. For CPI, Feroli sees Headline MoM of 0.55% (3.6% YoY) and Core MoM of 0.18% (2.4% YoY); his views reflect a MoM increase in Headline but decrease in Core inflation. That type of print should be enough to keep the bond market from re- pricing an October hike, instead continuing to see a skip and a December hike as most likely. If core MoM comes in around 0.18%, we'd expect yields to move lower globally, which tends to support rate-sensitive baskets. Yesterday's bullish read-through on the US consumer (see below) also helped Retail, especially with positioning light. We're relaunching our earnings macro read-through for the quarter, see below.