JPM US Market Intelligence | Afternoon Briefing Oct 14

• MKT UPDATES – Thoughts on today’s price actions; CPI thoughts & PPI/Retail Sales preview.

• DESK COMMENTARY – Desk commentary on Financials, Consumer, and Tech.

• US MKT INTEL VIEW – We return to our Tactically Bullish view and update the Monetization Menu.

AFTERNOON UPDATES (NEWS LINKS)

• SPX -1.1%, NDX -2.0%, RTY -1.9%. WTI +101bps at $95.09, NatGas -259bps to $3.20, UK NatGas +35bps to £2.1758, Gold 0bps to $4,105, Silver -608bps to $55.56, 10Y @ 5.185%, and VIX @ 16.87.

• US: Stocks closed lower; RTY and NDX both lagged. SPX ended a 53-day streak without a 1%+ decline; RTY is now 11% below its peak and in a correction; SPW fell 57bp. While the initial selloff was triggered by the hotter-than-expected CPI, tech was the main driver of today’s selloff. Cyclical underperformed Defensives by 7.0%. Treasuries sold off at the 8.30am ET release, with 2y yield spiking nearly 16bp initially, before reversing almost entirely at the close (2Y +2bp, 10Y -2bp, 30Y -4bp). Oct rate hike probability moved from ~20% to ~50% immediately after CPI, then reversed down to

33%. AI was again the main challenge. Semis, memory, hardware sold off: notable underperformers include ASML (-3.9% despite a beat-and-raise) and CoreWeave (it fell 15.5% as its 2032 unsecured bonds moved into distress). Headline on OpenAI’s staff departure also intensified the selloff today. Bank earnings were also a drag, with BAC down 5%. We saw a rotation into defensives with healthcare and staples outperforming. Gold fell 1.7%, silver dropped 6.1% (its worst day since June) and WTI crude rose 1.0%. Tomorrow, we will have TSMC guidance, PPI and retail sales, and after the close Warsh gives his final remarks in Bangkok before the FOMC.

• EU/UK: Major markets closed mostly higher led by UK and France. Thematically, UK Homebuilder, Defence, Luxury and Defensives were among the top performing baskets. 2y and 10y Gilts were both 2bp lower. Despite intensified Tech selloff during the US trading session, Eurozone ETF (EZU) was holding relatively fine and closed at -0.8%, outperforming major US indices. UKX +0.7%, SX5E +0.4%, SXXP +0.4%, DAX +0.2%.

CATALYSTS TOMORROW (FULL WEEK CALENDAR)

• US MACRO DATA TOMORROW: Empire Mfg, Philly Fed Business Outlook, Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, and PPI at 8.30am ET. Business Inventories at 10am ET.

• US EARNINGS TOMORROW: AA, BNY, IBKR, JBHT, MRSH, PLD, PNC, SCHW, USB

• GLOBAL MACRO DATA TOMORROW: (Japan) Capacity Utilization and IP (revision) at 12.30am ET. (UK) Monthly GDP, IP, Mfg Production, Index of Services, Visible Trade Balance and Trade Balance at 2am ET. (Eurozone) IP at 5am ET. (Japan) Japan Buying Foreign Bonds at 7.50pm ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE