JPM Europe Equity Research Today’s Morning Meeting

Europe First to Market 12 August 2026

Today’s Morning Meeting | Also Published Today | Key Changes | JPM Events | Upcoming Earnings

Today’s Morning Meeting European Staples (Celine Pannuti, CFA)

H126 Take-aways: Another quarter of beats – EMs driven – though not enough to sustain re-rating; Prefer ABI, BN, ULVR, GIVN, KERRY

The European Staples sector saw a better-than-expected results season overall, with 15 out of 21 companies reporting a Q2 organic sales growth beat (volumes driven) as well as the majority of companies beating on margin and EPS. Guidance for the year has largely been reiterated, however, with few raises. Delivery was supported by stronger Emerging Markets, with L. America sequential improvement, solid South & SE Asia, and China mixed. DMs remain complicated by still muted consumer sentiment, albeit with some evident weather benefit in Europe to sensitive categories (which may well persist into Q3). On the margin front, companies are guiding to some pick-up in input costs headwinds in H2, although not incrementally worse than had been indicated in the Spring, with HPC companies broadly in the range of cMSD H2 COGS inflation. The results mark the second quarter of relatively widespread top-line beats, though acknowledging that comparatives appear to toughen in H2 and still heightened demand and cost uncertainty. Overall, we slightly raised EPS 26E LSD across Staples, aided by a mix of better top-line, margin and FX, but remain c2% below consensus on FY27E EPS (and cMSD% below on RI, BEI and ESSITY). MSCI European Staples +3% YTD has lagged the broader market +12%, and relative valuation has slightly improved from the lows but at a 25% PE premium to the market is below the LT average of 44%. TOP PICKS in the Staples space and favouring stocks with volume-led topline momentum into H2: Unilever (OW), Danone (OW), Ingredients (OW Givaudan, Kerry, Symrise), Beer (OW ABI, Carlsberg). We are ahead on Q3 LFL vs consensus for GIVN, CPR, ABI, TMICC and PUIG. We are more cautious on persistent topline softness at premium multiple names: Lindt (UW), Haleon (UW), DPS risk at Pernod Ricard (N).

Ocado (Marcus Diebel) (OCDO LN, OW)

Volatility persists, but execution is improving — we like the story; deal flow remains the key catalyst though.

Ocado shares remain volatile (YTD -7% versus FTSE 100 +9%; Ocado YTD high/low of 289p/159p) given the stock’s asymmetric, event-driven profile. Share price movements continue to be driven by the binary nature of the investment case, which hinges on (1) incremental deal announcements across both CFCs (centralised fulfillment) and SBA (store-based automation) solutions that validate the proposition and (2) delivery of positive underlying cash flow by year-end (positive on a FY basis by FY27). Recent newsflow around the signing of a large, new CFC customer, alongside a more constructive tone from CEO Tim Steiner on our recent investor call, reinforces our view that momentum is improving and that further deal wins are achievable. At current levels, we see the valuation as depressed: the share price does not, in our view, even reflect the value of contracts already signed and, on our estimates, implies further site closures rather than incremental openings. In this note we provide a more detailed deep-dive into competitor solutions and latest developments for SBA and remain positive around Ocado’s ability to outbid competitors when it comes to new deals. We continue to view the risk/reward as highly attractive (although volatility is likely to remain) and reiterate our OW rating, raising our Nov-27 TP to 290p (from 245p).

EMEA Equity Research AC Europe Equity Research ( August 2026 JPMORGAN

Alongside additional orders from established customers (potentially ASDA) we continue to see scope for new customer announcements to form the next catalyst.