JPM Europe Equity Research | Today’s Morning Meeting

Europe First to Market 14 August 2026

Today’s Morning Meeting | Also Published Today | Key Changes | JPM Events | Upcoming Earnings

Today’s Morning Meeting Clariant (Chetan Udeshi, CFA) (CLN SW, OW)

Overhang Eases, Rerating Beckons

We view the late-July Amsterdam court ruling dismissing Shell’s €1.0bn ethylene damages claim against Clariant (CLN) and three other companies as a meaningful de-risking event, removing a key valuation overhang and potentially setting an important precedent given the apparent difficulty for other claimants to evidence and quantify damages (including methodology, market comparability and proof of price impact). Combined with a 2Q26 earnings beat—particularly in Catalysis, where the earnings headwind from Middle East (ME) conflict-related disruption appears more limited than anticipated—these developments underpin our view that the shares can continue to rerate towards historical medians and peer multiples (HSD+ 12m forward EV/EBITDA), versus ~7x 2027E EV/EBITDA currently. We have upgraded FY26/27E adj. EBITDA by 7%/4% and adj. EPS by 12%/6%, with our revised estimates broadly in line with Bloomberg consensus; however, we see the set-up as meaningfully better than for much of our coverage, where we typically assume earnings declining into 2027 and/or sit materially below consensus on expectations for the unwinding of material ME conflict-related tailwinds seen by these companies in 2026. In contrast, Clariant is already absorbing a net headwind from the ME (notably in Catalysis), which—paired with signs of a lower-than-feared drag — tilts the earnings set-up to more upside than downside versus consensus. We have also raised our Dec-2027 price target to CHF13 (from CHF9.3), reflecting a higher target EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.5x (from 7.0x) on lower perceived litigation risk, alongside the earnings upgrades. We continue to conservatively include a CHF500m provision in our valuation framework for the remaining ethylene damages claims.

Syensqo (Chetan Udeshi, CFA) (SYENS BB, OW)

SOTP catalyst meets Polymers recovery – raising PT to €100

Syensqo (SYENS) has moved from the Feb–Mar “guidance shock” to a materially improved fundamentals/strategy set-up. The 2Q26-led upgrade in the Materials outlook supports the case for continued re-rating, while the strategic review of the two less attractive segments adds a credible path to a higher-quality, more focused Materials (Specialty Polymers:~70% of EBITDA and Composite Materials: 30%) pure-play, with SOTP-based Dec-2027 end upside potential to €100. From here, upside is increasingly execution-dependent on: 1) SOTP value unlock and clearer capital allocation around potential proceeds (JPMe~ €2.5bn excess cash, likely split between buybacks and targeted M&A); and 2) a sustained Specialty Polymers acceleration, after an initial inflection seen in 2Q26, supporting a material margin, ROIC and FCF step-up. We upgrade 3Q26/FY26/27E adj. EBITDA by +3%/+4%/+6%, leaving us close to Bloomberg consensus, and upgrade FY26/27E adj. EPS by +9%/+10%, leaving us 6%/3% below consensus due to below-the-line assumptions. We see the set-up as meaningfully better than for much of our coverage, where we typically assume earnings decline into 2027 and/or sit materially below consensus on the unwind of Middle East conflict-related tailwinds in 2026. In contrast, SYENS has seen relatively minimal benefit from these tailwinds; combined with an inflecting Specialty Polymers growth profile, this should drive ~10% organic adj. EBITDA growth in 2027E. We maintain OW and raise our Dec-2027 PT to €100 (from €67.5), in line with our updated SOTP (Table 3). On our SOTP, SYENS’ 7 O P S T M 0 2 n u a o e h J v iltrc

Materials division trades at an implied ~9x 2027E EV/EBITDA (including €50m stranded costs) versus a ~12x weighted-

EMEA Equity Research AC Europe Equity Research ( August 2026 JPMORGAN

average multiple for its closest focused peers.