JPM Europe Equity Research | Today’s Morning Meeting

Europe First to Market 18 September 2026

Today’s Morning Meeting | Also Published Today | Key Changes | JPM Events | Upcoming Earnings

Today’s Morning Meeting AFL | Anheuser Busch InBev (Celine Pannuti, CFA)

ABI has been one of the standout performers in European Staples YTD, supported by strong FY26 EPS delivery (JPMe +21%), and a return to positive volumes growth to JPMe +0.7%, aided by continued share gains and successful World Cup activation. The upcoming CMD should evidence how its execution consistency has enabled ABI to regain a quality compounder status and rerating within EU staples, delivering consistently on its +4-8% organic EBITDA growth target. Looking into FY27, the backdrop becomes more challenging, and we see a heightened risk that volumes turn negative (JPMe -0.2%) with elevated uncertainty around Brazil (elections, tax changes), key markets US and China remaining challenged and potential FX impact from Developed Markets tightening. This leaves us below consensus on volumes at -0.2% (cons. +0.9%) while remaining broadly in line on organic sales at +4.1%, seeing the top-line algorithm becoming more price/mix-led, and in line on FY27 EPS at $4.95 (raised by +1.2% on FX). We expect this to come increasingly into focus, with the slowdown more visible from Q3 onwards (JPMe +0.4% organic volumes vs consensus +1.1%). Net-net, we remain confident on ABI’s business fundamentals, with a FY27E 9% EPS growth and 12% TSR at 7.8% FCF yield remains an attractive proposition within European staples though with more limited ST rerating potential as consensus adjusts to lower volumes and navigates the more uncertain LatAm macro outlook.

Elisa (Ajay Soni) (ELISA FH, UW)

Finnish pricing environment vulnerable into H2. Remain UW

We reiterate our UW rating on Elisa with a Dec’27 PT €34 (previously €35). The Finnish market remains vulnerable entering the competitive H2 period and we think Elisa’s premium valuation is unjustified: (1) Our latest pricing analysis shows the three main operators are priced within a €1/month range. This tight setup makes the market vulnerable should operators launch promotional activity, especially as market share losses are unacceptable. (2) Into H2’26, customers will be rolling off low priced 12-month fixed contracts taken during the highly promotional H2’25 period. These price conscious consumers could experience a material price rise and there is a risk the market becomes competitive again, especially if operators offer attractive switching offers to capture share. (3) We model telecom service revenue -0.1% y/y (cons: +0.3%, guidance 0-2%) driven by ARPU and subscriber growth headwinds. Furthermore, we model 2026 EBITDA at the bottom of guidance (€815m-845m) at €821m. Q3 is likely to be a softer quarter, this increases pressure for a Q4 acceleration, which will weigh on the story short term. (4) Several investors have shown an increased interest in Elisa, highlighting the attractive dividend yield (~7%), growing LSD. However, for income-focused investors, we think Tele2 (7% dividend yield and growing MSD) and KPN (7% TSR yield and growing DD) offer better options across our space.

EMEA Equity Research AC Europe Equity Research ( September 2026 JPMORGAN

BoE QT changes supportive for Corporate deposit growth

The BoE kept the bank rate at 3.75% but surprised the market on QT to shift the stock of gilt APF holdings (£488bn Sept’26) for monetary policy purposes to zero. We highlight the key components of the BoE’s QT plan below - but overall, we note plans for a slower pace/quantum of QT from a) slower active sales (potentially through the Debt Management Office), b) greater amounts held to maturity, at c£46bn/year to 2034 (vs £70bn previously). We see this supporting net deposit growth within the banking system, given a lower requirement for market absorption of QT (i.e. a lower gross headwind), even if a portion of the level of reserves previously due for QT are invested elsewhere. Specifically, this supports Corporate deposit growth, whereby we recently increased Corporate deposit forecasts to 3-4% CAGR 25-28E, alongside an increase in Corporate lending forecasts to 8-9% CAGR (see UK Banks: Corporate…