JPM Europe Equity Research | Today’s Morning Meeting

Europe First to Market 11 August 2026

Today’s Morning Meeting | Also Published Today | Key Changes | JPM Events | Upcoming Earnings

Today’s Morning Meeting CSG (David H Perry, CFA) (CSG NA, OW)

Shares offer c60% upside, even on much more conservative estimates

CSG reported H1 26 results ahead of consensus (Table 1). This was the third good results print from CSG since its IPO on Jan 23rd this year. Despite this, the shares are trading 30% below the IPO price of €25. We believe the share price weakness is due to investor concerns over the long-term demand for medium and large (M/L) calibre ammo. In our view, the more important question is what is discounted in the current share price. In an attempt to address investor concerns, we reduce our 2027-30E EPS by 6% / 10% / 15% / 20% (Table 2); this is only a JPM scenario and it does not reflect the unchanged guidance of CSG. On our new EPS estimates, CSG is still trading on the lowest valuation in the sector (Table 3). We reduce our multiples- based Dec-27 PT by c20% to €27.5, reflecting our lower estimates and a lower target multiple. However, this still implies potential upside of c60% over the next 17 months and thus we reiterate our OW rating.

Amadeus (Toby Ogg) (AMS SM, OW)

Opex moderato, margin crescendo

We believe Amadeus is entering into a phase where revenue growth is set to re-accelerate in 2027 and margins have the potential to expand at a pace faster than consensus currently builds in. In this note, we lay out the building blocks of our refreshed thesis. We raise our adj. EPS estimates for Amadeus ~L-MSD% for 2026-28 and lift our Dec-27 PT to €70, offering ~20% upside potential. Our forecasts are now ~MSD% above 2026-28 consensus as we see scope for greater margin expansion than the current consensus is building into forecasts. Our upgraded forecasts are based on an analysis of Amadeus’s cost line evolution, which has increased our conviction on the potential for operating leverage to translate into quicker margin expansion. The combination of re-accelerating revenue growth into 2027, margin expansion potential and buybacks drives our low-teens adj. EPS CAGR through 2028. Additional sources of upside to our base case model include faster air traffic growth recovery in 2027, slower fixed cost growth if current headcount trends continue and additional buybacks versus our current model. With Amadeus trading on ~16x/~14x 2027E/2028E P/E for our low-teens adj. EPS CAGR, we also see scope for valuation to re-rate on re-accelerating revenue growth and earnings upgrades.

| European Stainless Steel (Dominic O'Kane)

Stepping into Stainless on superior earnings growth; u/g Aperam & Outokumpu to OW, u/g Acerinox to Neutral

In July we returned to a constructive outlook for the European Carbon Steel sector, forecasting an earnings transformation from Q4’26 as TRQ takes effect from 1 July (link). Post Q2 reported we also upgrade our outlook for European Stainless Steel equities, forecasting a superior earnings inflection in Stainless at >50% EBITDA growth in 2026 (vs >30% for Carbon Steel),

EMEA Equity Research AC Europe Equity Research ( August 2026 JPMORGAN

increasing to >100% in 2027. We forecast a rebound in 2027 FCF yields that screen superior to Carbon (15% Aperam, 9% Outokumpu, 4% Acerinox), due to Stainless’ lower de-carbonisation capex requirements. Aperam and Outokumpu have significantly lagged Acerinox and Carbon Steels (-3%/-7% absolute in last 3M) and their valuation looks more compelling at ~6x 2027E EV/EBITDA, as they now emerge from trough earnings ~1-2 quarters later than Carbon. Stainless Steel companies are actively expanding into higher-value segments such as high performance alloys, driven by strong aerospace and defence demand, with data centre demand providing potential support down the line, which can support equity multiple re-ratings in 2027/28. We upgrade Aperam (€57/sh PT) and Outokumpu (€6.50/sh PT) to OW. We forecast Acerinox’s 2026/27 EBITDA growth at +70%/+130% (vs 2025), but after a ~50% rally YTD the stock screens relatively more expensive on ~11x/8x EV/ EBITDA, which limits further upside conviction at this stage. The shares are trading at a ~10% premium to…