JPM Europe Equity Research | Today’s Morning Meeting

Europe First to Market 06 August 2026

Today’s Morning Meeting | Also Published Today | Key Changes | JPM Events | Upcoming Earnings

Today’s Morning Meeting DHL Group (Alexia Dogani) (DHL GR, OW)

Compounding earnings growth via positive Express operating leverage; remain OW with PT up to €65 implying >15% upside

DHL reported a strong 2Q26 EBIT with organic group revenue accelerating to +13% y/y and EBIT +30% y/y to €1.86bn, importantly driven by a return to volume growth and strong positive operating leverage in Express. This reflected a clear inflection in organic growth with TDI weight/day +9.4% y/y, continued yield/cost discipline, and a benefit from the tight air freight market (€150m in Express or 2-3% of WpD growth; €25-50m in Global Forwarding). We see this quarter as delivering an important inflection point of organic volume trends as the first real quarter of growth resuming, even adjusting for the benefit from the Middle East disruption. While the recent share price performance has broadly anticipated these positive effects, we remain OW and increase our Dec-27 PT to €65 (previously €60) partly on higher estimates but also applying a lower integrator discount (now 20% vs. 25% previously) to reflect management’s better execution in recent years. The shares in our view continue to offer attractive TSR with >15% upside potential, trading on a 2027 P/E of 14x vs. EPS growth of over >10% to 2029 and a 4% dividend yield.

Fresnillo Plc (Patrick Jones) (FRES LN, OW, PT 4,700p)

YTD de-rating despite improving project portfolio & strong cash returns potential; stay OW

After achieving a significant re-rating and outperformance over 2025, FRES has underperformed its Gold Mining peers by 10% YTD and de-rated ~20% on spot EV/EBITDA to ~6.3x over the same period. Nevertheless, we expect FRES can outperform peers given: 1) after improving its operational performance over 2024/25, the group’s organic project pipeline now appears more compelling, 2) we expect FY’26 results in early 2027 could deliver another special dividend well beyond the dividend policy. FRES has 2 brownfield projects, Herradura Valles UG & Noche Buena, which help underpin gold output returning to >600 koz pa over the medium term, while the Rodeo greenfield project could potentially add ~100koz pa beyond this. We forecast FRES to reach ~$2.4bn net cash by YE’26, equiv. to ~9% of mkt cap. Combined with FRES’ base dividend, we forecast FRES could distribute a total dividend yield of ~10%, the highest in the EMEA Mining sector. If the market can establish more confidence in FRES’ growth pipeline and cash return potential, FRES could re-rate further given its ~12x pre- 2018 average multiple. Updating for latest H1’26 results & guidance, and adding the Noche Buena restart into our model ( link ), we revise 2026/27E EBITDA by 0%/-1% and sit -6%/-7% vs BBG Con. We maintain our Dec’27 PT of £47.00 /sh, offering ~70% upside potential. With FRES trading at 2026/27E EV/EBITDA of 6.3x/6.1x & 8%/9% FCF yield, we reiterate our OW rating.

PPC Group (Anna Antonova, CFA) (PPC GA, OW, PT €25.00)

H1’26 First Take: Decent print tracks in line with reiterated FY targets

EMEA Equity Research AC Europe Equity Research ( August 2026 JPMORGAN

Our Take: Yesterday after market close, PPC released a robust set of results - despite Q2 EBITDA missing our and BBG consensus forecasts by c. 10%, H1 group adjusted EBITDA/attributable net income still tracked at a solid 52%/53% of the reiterated FY’26 targets. Post the recently concluded equity raise, leverage has expectedly reset down to 1.2x ND/EBITDA (vs 3.5x target ceiling), allowing PPC to continue on its RES growth path, both organic and M&A-driven. On the latter, after recently expanding to Poland and Hungary (in-line with its “entering new markets” strategy), PPC commented that more similar agreements are likely to be announced in the coming months, as the company continues selective acquisitions. On the earnings call, management commented that they: 1) remain confident about RES capacity growth delivery into 2030 (with c. 81% of the 18.8GW target currently already secured and the pipeline covering >100% of required additions), 2) see FY’26…